NFL Preview: AFC South
Leading up to the NFL season kickoff, Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham will break down each division and offer recommended bets with the last offering being a look at the playoff picture and overall Super Bowl wagers. It is a must for every fan.
PART 4: AFC SOUTH
Nick Tedeschi
The popular pick this season in the AFC South is to forecast the end of the Indianapolis dynasty. After winning the division every year bar one since 2003 and finishing with 12-plus wins every season from 2003, the Colts slipped to a “shocking” 10-6 before being bundled out in the playoffs by the New York Jets in a close one.
There is no doubt the Colts are falling, that their period of total domination of the AFC South and a genuine Super Bowl contender is slipping away. But they had mitigating circumstances in 2010 and with Peyton Manning still one of the premier quarterbacks, I expect them to put up one last stand this year.
The Colts have some major problems. Their offensive line is a real worry. The receiving corps is not what it once was. The secondary is a concern. The uninspiring coaching of Jim Caldwell also doesn’t fill me with excitement. Oh, to have Tony Dungy back in Indy…
But with a decent injury run and some improvement on defence, the Colts can again win 10 games and the division. The Colts were killed with injury in 2010, ranking 30th in games lost to offensive starters and 31st on defence. Those injuries really told on defence where Dwight Freeney, Gary Brackett and Robert Mathis were not able to hold it all together.
I don’t think the Colts are automatically going to become the Pittsburgh Steelers but the free agent pickups of Ernie Sims and Jamaal Anderson provide critical depth.
Peyton Manning is too good to miss the playoffs. He is a winner and a durable one at that. The Colts are a 10-11 win team.
Everyone wants to pick the Texans, commonplace this time of year. Houston again go in with a ton of talent on offense- Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster- but their defence was historically bad in 2010 and despite the additions of some key parts like Jonathan Joseph, Danieal Manning and new co-ordinator Wade Phillips, they don’t seem good enough. They are set to be a big over team again and they will beat some good teams but consistency is not their friend with the only sure thing in Texans football is that their season is over when January rolls around. Maybe next year.
Everyone is writing off the Jaguars but again I think they have been undervalued.
The Jags are what they are. They like to run the ball, which they do well, and they like to stop the run, which they do well, but in a passing league, they offer very little in either creating or stopping though the air.
David Garrard isn’t hopeless at quarterback though and they have bolstered their defence with the likes of Dawan Landry and Clint Sessions, suggesting at least some improvement there.
The Jags had a turnover ratio of -15 so there should be an improvement in their record if they can just make some plays in the air. They can win nine games and are a sleeper for the division and the primary challenger to Indianapolis.
Tennessee appear little hope. Chris Johnson is an exceptional talent, one of the most dynamic running backs in the game, but he has only recently returned and those who miss the preseason usually find themselves with soft tissue injuries. With an already worrying offense, not changed by the arrival of Matt Hasselbeck or an internal hire as head coach, the Titans don’t seem good enough to threaten too many teams. I have them pegged as a 6-7 win team.
Predicted Finish: Indianapolis 10-6, Jacksonville 9-7, Houston 8-8, Tennessee 6-10
Recommended Bets
· 2 units on Jacksonville OVER 6 wins at $1.83 (IAS)
· 1.5 units on Indianapolis to win AFC South at $2.37 (IAS)
· 1 unit on Jacksonville to win AFC South at $7.00 (IAS)
Cliff Bingham
Last year they went a collective 7-9 against the NFC East, a disappointing 8-8 against the AFC West and 3-5 against the rest of the AFC, landing in sixth spot in my divisional power rankings. This year they get the AFC North (predicting 7-9) and the NFC South (predicting 7-9), so as a collective I think the AFC South will drop one from 30 wins down to 29 this season.
The big question in my mind is whether the Colts have yet another divisional title in them. Given the transient nature of success in the NFL and the fact that the Colts defence leaked 388 points last year (worse than six teams who went 6-10 or worse last season: Cleveland, Tennessee, Washington, Minnesota, Detroit and San Francisco), I thought long and hard about tipping them to fall off the mantle this year. Then it dawned on me that I’d be tipping Peyton Manning to miss the playoffs in a division that isn’t exactly loaded with talent, and that this would be a stupid idea. Let’s stick them at 10-6 again this season, as I’m still not sold on much else at the Colts besides number 18.
I like Tennessee as their main challenger this season and toyed with them being the team to overthrow the Colts. They lost all four matches they played last season where the margin was less than a touchdown, so their 6-10 record was a little unflattering, especially as they scored more points (356) than they conceded (339) and jumped out to a 5-2 record after seven weeks.
They’ve finally moved on both head coach Jeff Fisher (who I quite liked for a number of years, but whose time really does appear to have come) and the saga that was the Vince Young/ Kerry Collins QB debate. Mike Munchak, who joined the then Houston Oilers in 1982 and has remained with the team as a player or coach for 29 straight years (serving most recently as offensive line coach) now has the top job. New coach, new QB, Chris Johnson dominating the backfield, everyone writing them off….. feels like a possible sleeper, yeah?
My only red flag (aside from Chris Johnson holding out for more money) is that their new quarterback is 35-year old (and possibly washed up) Matt Hasselbeck. Signing an old QB who just led his side to a 7-9 season doesn’t feel like the way to make it to the playoffs. I’m giving them an 8-8 mark.
Once again Houston come into the season as a popular ‘sleeper’ pick, a poisoned chalice if ever there was one. While the Schaub-Foster-Andre Johnson trio can make plenty happen for the Texans while they have possession, it’s their defensive foibles that continue to let them down. Did you know that last year they scored more points than seven playoff teams (NY Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City, Chicago, Green Bay and Seattle), yet managed to finish 6-10? I’m giving them 6-10 each and every season until they build an acceptable defensive unit.
Jacksonville bring back pretty much the same band who went 8-8 last season but have only won 20 of their 48 matches over the past three seasons. Quarterback David Garrard had one excellent season in 2007, earned himself an extended contract and promptly resumed mediocrity. The Jags also had a negative 66 points differential (a red flag for an 8-8 side) and conceded the sixth most points of any side in the league (419). I just can’t see them progressing this season and instead expect them to slide a little.
Predicted finish: Indianapolis 10-6, Tennessee 8-8, Houston 6-10, Jacksonville 5-11
Recommended bets
· 1 unit on Indianapolis to win the AFC South at $2.37
· 0.5 units on Tennessee to win the AFC South at $5.50.
