NFL Preview: NFC North
Leading up to the NFL season kickoff, Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham will break down each division and offer recommended bets with the last offering being a look at the playoff picture and overall Super Bowl wagers. It is a must for every fan.
PART 7: NFC NORTH
Nick Tedeschi
The offseason has been full of gushing for the Green Bay Packers. There is no doubt 2010 was a breakout year for Aaron Rodgers, was a testament to Ted Thompson’s ability as a GM, was a fine coaching display by Mike McCarthy and his staff, particularly Dom Capers and was a year that defensive superstars like Clay Matthews and BJ Raji stepped up big time.
They won the Super Bowl from a wild card berth and didn’t lose a game by bigger than four points.
And they have done little in the offseason.
But I am tipping them to either just miss out or just slip into a wildcards spot on the back of a one to two game slide. There are a number of reasons. On the statistical side, the Packers had a turnover ratio of +10 and they underachieved with total wins. They also reside in one of the toughest divisions in football, they will be a target for every team they come up against and they will have to try and find harmony with returning stars and those that filled in so successfully last year.
I think the Packers are a good team. But I think the value is in taking them on this year.
With the division forecast to be so close with my numbers giving me two wins between first and fourth, the value lies in Minnesota, who I have rated an eight to nine win team.
Last year was a disaster for the Vikings as the club lurched from one Brad Childress inspired disaster to another. Thank the Lord, he was finally shown the door but not before castrating the season. Things got so bad that Joe Webb was called on for two games.
Personnel wise, there are a few moves I like. I have never been a major Donovan McNabb man but he is a major upgrade on Tavaris Jackson and this is the first time he has had a running back. If he can stay on his feet, throw deep a few times, dump off to Visanthe Shiancoe and make sure the field is open for gun running back Adrian Peterson.
The offense is more than capable and will improve markedly from their 29th ranking in scoring and 23rd ranking in yards, particularly if the offensive line holds.
Defensively, the Vikings have a nice line with Jared Allen a premier pass rusher and Kevin Williams a top tackle while EJ Henderson is a quality linebacker. The secondary is the main worry but if they can stay healthy and Asher Allen sees minimal time, they can improve markedly on a defence that still performed admirably in 2010.
The Vikings aren’t going to set the world on fire but they will get better and nine wins could be enough this year.
Chicago did me plenty of good last year but this year I am finding them a tough team to assess. They did seem to get plenty of luck in 2010, winning six of eight games decided by a touchdown and ranking top three in games lost by starters on both offense and defence.
There is also Chicago’s lack of offensive tools. Matt Forte is a nice back but Jay Cutler is going close to being proven a bust while there is little going on at wideout. Marion Barber helps ease Forte’s burden but Roy Williams is a bad chemistry fit that suggests Mike Martz may be about to try for more stupid long ball rubbish.
Saying that, I love Forte, they have a near-elite defence and the best special teams in the NFL. With a pretty handy schedule and a competent coach, Chicago can win nine games and sneak into the playoffs.
It is good to see Detroit on the improve. They have a beastly defensive line, a sharp coach with a plan and a quarterback to build around but they are still a year or two away from making an impact. They are a trendy sleeper pick and those rarely come off. I see a 6-8 win season but they have more downside than their three divisional rivals.
Predicted Finish: Minnesota 9-7, Chicago 9-7, Green Bay 8-8, Detroit 7-9
Recommended Bets
· 1 unit on Minnesota to win division at $12.38 (Pinnacle)
· 1 unit on Chicago to win division at $8.40 (Pinnacle)
· 2.5 units on Green Bay Under 12 wins at $1.53 (IAS)
· 1 unit on Detroit Under 7.5 wins at $2.99 (Pinnacle)
· 2.5 units on Minnesota Over 7 wins at $1.95 (Sportingbet)
Cliff Bingham
Last year they went a collective 7-9 against the benchmark division in the AFC East, 9-7 against the NFC East and 5-3 against the rest of the NFC. On that basis, I’ve marked them in a tie for second in my divisional power rankings. This year they get the subpar AFC West (predicting 10-6) and the NFC South (predicting 9-7), so as a collective I think the NFC North will jump from 33 wins up to 36 this season.
Don’t let the fact that Green Bay lost six matches last season fool you – four losses were by a field goal and the other two by a margin of four points. Including playoffs the Packers played a total of 20 games last season and with a touch more luck may have only lost two or three of them. Throw in the fact that they played much of last season without two key weapons on offense in Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley and this is a potential juggernaut team, deserving of favouritism for the championship title.
Chicago looks like a prime candidate for a significant slide from their 11-5 record and NFC North title last season on a number of fronts. They won six of their eight games decided by less than a touchdown last year and then managed to draw Seattle in the second week of the playoffs (after a first round bye) before losing to Green Bay in the NFC Championship match.
Questions must also be asked about Jay Cutler’s infamous no show for the second half of that championship match. Was he so seriously hurt that continuing to play would have been worse for the Bears than having mediocre (I’m being generous here) back-up QB Todd Collins entering the game? Or did a man who has been oft-labelled as selfish and entitled simply give it up too easily? And if his teammates believe the latter is true, how will they respond to him this season? I thought long and hard about the Bears dropping significantly this season on the back of potential team chemistry dramas, but I think the easier 2011 schedule saves them from that fate. Nonetheless, they have too many concerning issues lingering overhead to have me selecting them for a wild card playoff berth.
Detroit finally look like a side that is pointed in the right direction after an extended period of ineptitude. Their 6-10 record last season was somewhat unflattering given that they played in eight games decided by less than a touchdown and only won two of them. I still feel like they might be a year off and the number of injuries young quarterback Matt Stafford has suffered are a concern, but they have legitimate sleeper potential. I have them improving to 8-8 this season but wouldn’t laugh at anyone who suggested they could win ten games and snare a wild card spot, especially if Chicago do happen to implode this season.
Did Minnesota not learn anything from the Redskins last season? Philadelphia are notorious for knowing when is the right time to let players go, so when they only requested a second round draft pick to let former QB Donovan McNabb go to divisional rival Washington, that should have acted as a signal that Donovan wasn’t ‘all that’ anymore. McNabb stunk up the joint in Washington sufficiently to get benched for Rex Grossman before the season ended – enough said. Now the Vikings have picked up McNabb as their top string quarterback, whilst losing the dangerous (though admittedly, injury-prone) Sidney Rice from their receiving corps? Expect defences to stack the box in order to limit Adrian ‘All Day’ Peterson’s impact. Expect McNabb to be unable to make defences pay for doing this. Expect the Vikings to be among the also-rans this season.
Predicted Finish: Green Bay 13-3, Chicago 9-7, Detroit 8-8, Minnesota 6-10
Recommended Bets
· 1 unit on Green Bay to win more than 12 games at $2.37
