March 23 and 24 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the March 23 meeting at Moonee Valley (featuring the Group 1 William Reid Stakes) and the March 24 meetings at Caulfield, Rosehill (featuring the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes and Group 1 Coolmore Classic) and Morphettville Parks.
Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips
Results for March 17 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – nil
Track outside prescribed range – Cabernet, Permit
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – American Crew
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Ky’s The Limit ($9.00 SP) – unplaced
March 17 results: 1 selection, no winners
2012 results: 16 selections, 16 units bet, one winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -44%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -41%)
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Nil
March 17 results: No selections
2012 results: 5 selections, 2.5 units bet, no winners
Overall Results
March 17: 1 selection, 1 unit bet, no winners
2012: 21 selections, 18.5 units bet, one winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -51%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -49%)
Friday March 23
Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 1 Lady Lynette
The weight-for-age nature of this race sees her meet Hi Belle a kilo better and both Marveen and Spirit Song 4.5 kilos better from their encounter at Flemington two weeks ago. She is also something of a Moonee Valley 1600 metre specialist, with two wins and four placings from six starts at the track and trip. Barrier 11 looks awkward at first glance but the speed is unlikely to be frantic, allowing her time to cross over into a handy position and be right in the finish.
Saturday March 24
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 1 Zedi Knight
His last start effort when fourth in the Listed Hareeba Stakes was forgivable after a post-race vet inspection found him to be sore. His efforts previous to that were very good, including both a win at this track/ distance in the Listed Christmas Stakes and a second to Black Caviar in the Group 2 Australia Stakes. From barrier three he should be able to lead and if he can get a reasonably cheap run in transit, will take some catching.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 5 No. 4 Love Conquers All
He ran second in this race to More Joyous last year and seemed to only improve throughout the remainder of 2011, so I think he can turn the tables on the champion mare this year. He has an excellent fresh record, with three wins and a second from five first-up runs. Rain-affected ground also poses no problem, with three wins and two seconds from six starts on slow or heavy tracks. The early speed in this race does not appear strong, so he should be able to slide across from barrier 10 and settle in the first three or four, before being prominent in the finish.
Race 7 No. 2 King’s Rose
I thought her first-up run in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (only three lengths off Hay List) was excellent for a horse who is clearly better suited in the 1400-1600 metre range. A winner of both the Group 2 Memsie Stakes and Group 2 Stocks Stakes (defeating Pinker Pinker) last season before being edged out at Group 1 level in both the Toorak Handicap and Emirates Stakes, she is clearly of Group 1 calibre on Australian soil (having already won the Group 1 1000 Guineas in New Zealand as a three-year-old), and I think she’ll claim Group 1 success again here.
Morphettville Parks (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 7 I’m Discreet
After a number of recent strong runs in better grade without saluting the judge first, she returns to a track where she has two wins and a third from her three runs to date. She put in strong efforts at her last two starts when second to Hi Belle at Group 3 level and then fourth to Smokin’ Joey and Pago Rock at Listed level, and thus may bring the strongest form lines of any galloper to this race. While she has never raced over 1300 metres before, her record at both 1200 and 1400 metres suggests this trip will be entirely suitable.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
