AFL 2011 – Quarter Time Wrap
With a seventeenth team leading to a couple of byes for each team and the extension of the home and away season to 24 weeks, this part of the season now divides rather neatly into four quarters of six weeks. With that laboured segue out of the way and Round Six now in the books, it’s time to introduce the ‘quarter time wrap’ of the 2011 home and away season and how your club has fared to date. Stay tuned for further instalments at the conclusion of Rounds 12 and 18 – suffice to say that you will not need the assistance of The Hardy Boys to solve the mystery of the titles for these articles.
Essentially the partial-season reviews will take the form of a ‘power ranking’ of each club, an assessment of their recent form and some thoughts on the road ahead. As an illustration of why you should never put your thoughts on such matters on the public record, each team will have the previous rankings (pre-season, quarter time, etc.) noted next to their ranking – in some cases this may lead to gloating on my part, in many it will lead to a healthy dose of humble pie. Teams will be broken up into tiered groupings based on a ‘school grade’, as sometimes the gap between say fifth and sixth place is substantially bigger than the gap between sixth and seventh. Without further ado, let us start with the teams that have many reasons to be humble.
F-grades – Basement dwellers
17. Port Adelaide (ranked 14th pre-season)
15th place on ladder (1-5, 71%)
Last 6 – lost to Coll by 75, lost to WC by 18, lost to Geel by 79, def Adel by 32, lost to GC by 3, lost to NM by 60
Apart from scheduling 15 ‘Showdown’ matches per season, is there any way to motivate this apathy-riddled squad? It has been a major fall from grace for a team that played in the 2007 Grand Final, albeit that the Power may have over-achieved slightly in reaching the decider that year. The upcoming stretch offers little in the way of respite, with finals contenders Hawthorn, Sydney (away), Fremantle and Carlton to face the Power over the next five weeks. They could well reach the midpoint of the season with a 1-10 record.
16. Gold Coast (ranked 15th pre-season)
16th place on ladder (1-4, 45%)
Last 6 – bye, lost to Carl by 119, lost to WB by 71, lost to Melb by 90, def Port by 3, lost to Ess by 139
A young team and a young list with a long road ahead of them, the Suns at least showed glimpses of hope for the immediate future with their gutsy comeback win against the Power, albeit that the first quarter drubbing handed out by Essendon took some of the shine away. Among the younger brigade Zac Smith, Brandon Matera and David Swallow have been those to shine brightest thus far, while Michael Rischitelli and Gary Ablett were instrumental in the inaugural win for the club. Their first clash with the Lions is set for the upcoming round – it will provide further insight into how far the Suns have come and how far they have left to go on their journey towards being competitive on a weekly basis.
15. Brisbane (ranked 16th pre-season)
17th place on ladder (0-5, 75%)
Last 6 – lost to Freo by 2, lost to WB by 78, lost to Melb by 11, bye, lost to St K by 13, lost to Rich by 28
Give them their due – the Lions are having a genuine dip for Michael Voss. However the injury to Jonathan Brown, the hole in their list created by the signing (and subsequent exit) of Brendan Fevola and the mixed results of their 2010 recruitments has meant that Brisbane simply do not have the cattle to mix it with the big boys in 2011. Their attention must now turn to the retention of likely young types around which to build a future contender – the signatures of Daniel Rich, Mitch Clark, Tom Rockliff and Jack Redden are vital to such a process.
D-grades – Urgency required
14. North Melbourne (ranked twelfth pre-season)
14th place on ladder (1-4, 87%)
Last 6 – lost to WC by 4, lost to Coll by 87, bye, lost to Freo by 29, lost to Rich by 9, def Port by 60
Scratch the surface and the North Melbourne record is not as bleak as it first seems. A narrow loss to a better-than-first-thought Eagles line-up at Subiaco, a loss to Collingwood, a second trip to Subiaco against a in-form Fremantle and another narrow loss to Richmond in a match where a couple of contentious (and pivotal) decisions went against the Kangaroos. Had the Kangaroos been able to keep their nose in front against West Coast and Richmond, their 3-2 record would be drawing respect from the football community. As it happened though, North Melbourne really need to beat the likes of Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide (at home) and the Gold Coast over the next six weeks to give themselves any hope of entering the finals debate.
13. St Kilda (ranked third pre-season)
13th place on ladder (1-3-1, 87%)
Last 6 – lost to Geel by 1, drew with Rich, lost to Ess by 52, bye, def Bris by 13, lost to Adel by 19
It is unclear how much residual hurt remains at Moorabbin after a second consecutive season where they fell short in the premiership decider. It is unclear whether the window of opportunity for this group of key Saints players, which opened during the Grant Thomas era, has effectively closed. It is unclear how much the Saints miss the in-and-under work of Lenny Hayes. What is clear is that this side is on the ropes in respect of the 2011 season – with Carlton, Hawthorn, Fremantle (away), Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and Geelong all scheduled within their next seven matches, only a substantial display of character and grit over the next two months will prevent them from being able to plan and end-of-season trip for September.
12. Richmond (ranked 13th pre-season)
Tenth place on ladder (2-3-1, 82%)
Last 6 – lost to Carl by 20, drew with St K, lost to Haw by 63, lost to Coll by 71, def NM by 9, def Bris by 28
The Tigers are showing similar promise early in 2011 to that on display in the second half of 2010 when they were able to clamber out of the cellar and compete well on a weekly basis. Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin are both showing signs of turning their significant potential into consistent performances, Jack Riewoldt continues to spearhead the forward line and Robin Nahas has been the surprise packet of their season to date. The next two weeks (Fremantle at home, followed by the Western Bulldogs) will be vital in determining whether the Tigers can legitimately press for a position in the (lower rungs of) the top eight, or whether they remain a year or two away.
11. Melbourne (ranked seventh pre-season)
Eighth place on ladder (2-2-1, 100%)
Last 6 – drew with Syd, lost to Haw by 45, def Bris by 11, def GC by 90, bye, lost to WC by 54
Until last Thursday night it was difficult to get a great feel for where the Demons should slot into this list – the draw with Sydney was admirable, the defeat against Hawthorn excusable and the large win over the Gold Coast encouraging. However, the trip to Subiaco last week was a stark and unpleasant reality check for the red and blue, pouring cold water on the assessment of many (including myself) that this would be the year that Melbourne became a key finals player. The next three weeks (against Adelaide, North Melbourne and St Kilda) will be of great importance to the Demons with at least two wins from those matches necessary, as waiting for them in the subsequent three weeks are Carlton, Essendon and Collingwood respectively.
C-grades – Staying in the finals frame
10. Adelaide (ranked sixth pre-season)
Twelfth place on ladder (2-3, 94%)
Last 6 – def Haw by 20, bye, lost to Freo by 25, lost to Port by 32, lost to Carl by 6, def St K by 19
Subtract their abysmal last three quarters against Port Adelaide for a moment and what would be left is pretty respectable – a 3-2 record with losses to Fremantle and Carlton and a win against Hawthorn would have been a productive start to 2011 for Neil Craig’s men. The loss to Port Adelaide hovers over everything though – a loss that seemed inexcusable at the time and has become even more so with the Power’s insipid ‘efforts’ in subsequent weeks. The Crows cannot afford to make a habit of losing games they are expected to win, and must make full use of an upcoming six week schedule which includes matches against Melbourne, Gold Coast, Brisbane, North Melbourne and a potential ‘eight-point game’ against West Coast.
9. Western Bulldogs (ranked eleventh pre-season)
Eleventh place on ladder (2-3,110%)
Last 6 – lost to Ess by 55, def Bris by 78, def GC by 71, bye, lost to Freo by 7, lost to Coll by 48
At present, the Bulldogs are a difficult team to assess – they have posted two very comfortable wins against lowly sides but lost the other three matches, two by convincing margins. Important side note: for those of you who wish to argue that they were level with Collingwood early in the final quarter, I submit to you that the Magpies should have sewn the game up by midway through the third. In any event, all we have established to date is that they do not belong in either the bottom or top rung if teams. The next three weeks see them face three other ‘mid-ranked’ teams in Sydney, Richmond and West Coast before clashes with Hawthorn and Geelong. If the Bulldogs are to be a true top-four contender as many have prophesised, they need to get through the next six-week instalment with four wins or more to reach the halfway point of the season with a winning record.
8. West Coast (ranked 17th pre-season)
Seventh place on ladder (3-2, 114%)
Last 6 – def NM by 4, def Port by 18, lost to Syd by 13, lost to Haw by 7, bye, def Melb by 54
Well now – I was a long, long way from the mark with my pre-season assessment of the Eagles. Their experienced players are showing renewed verve (none more so than Dean Cox, who may well have re-established himself as the premier ruckman in the competition) and their youngsters have acclimatised quickly to the demands of playing at AFL level. Nonetheless, their next six weeks will prove to be a stern litmus test with away matches against Essendon, Collingwood and Adelaide, a home match against the Western Bulldogs and a local derby against the Dockers. Prior to the commencement of the season, I would have pencilled those matches in as five losses for the Eagles, but now…
B-grades – Keeping the big guns honest
(Note: the next five sides are evenly matched and you could argue almost any pecking order within this group – I eventually settled on this order purely so that I could finish the article and load it up)
7. Sydney (ranked fourth pre-season)
Ninth place on ladder (2-2-1, 94%)
Last 6 – drew with Melb, def Ess by 5, def WC by 13, lost to Geel by 27, bye, lost to Carl by 16
A tough early draw for John Longmire in his first year as head coach, with four of Sydney’s five opponents to date being ranked in the top half of this power poll. Nonetheless, they have given a great indication as to where they sit on the AFL food chain – a solid, honest, hard-working side who will rarely drop games that they should win, but who don’t quite have the firepower to take on the top teams. Even this early in the season, it appears likely that the Swans will make a final appearance, but that it will be a reasonably short-lived one of either one or two weeks.
6. Essendon (ranked tenth pre-season)
Fifth place on ladder (3-2-1, 144%)
Last 6 – def WB by 55, lost to Syd by 5, def St K by 52, drew with Carl, lost to Coll by 30, def GC by 139
As a Bombers fan, it has been a delight to support a team who is relevant in the context of the finals debate again. The speed and flair of recent years is now complemented by improved structures and intensity in defence, led by the evergreen Dustin Fletcher, who shows no signs of slowing down in his 19th season of AFL footy. The Bombers can stamp themselves as a key player in September over the next six weeks with matches against West Coast, Brisbane, Richmond and Melbourne before a trip to Subiaco to take on the Dockers in Round Twelve.
5. Carlton (ranked eighth pre-season)
Third place on ladder (4-1-1, 128%)
Last 6 – def Rich by 20, def GC by 119, lost to Coll by 28, drew with Ess, def Adel by 6, def Syd by 16
Brett Ratten started the season with his tenure at Princes Park under threat if results were not forthcoming in 2011, and the Blues have started in a fashion that suggests he may well keep his spot. One of the more telling attributes of the 2011 Carlton side to date has been their ability to overcome deficits – it has only been in the match against the Gold Coast that the Blues did not trail at some point of the second half, yet they have fought back on three occasions for victories and once for a draw. Their draw for the next six weeks looks palatable as well, with matches against St Kilda, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Brisbane all likely to see the Blues installed as favourites.
4. Fremantle (ranked ninth pre-season)
Fourth place on ladder (4-1, 113%)
Last 6 – def Bris by 2, lost to Geel by 11, def Adel by 25, def NM by 29, def WB by 7, bye
Mark Harvey and the Dockers have done a terrific job of overcoming the loss of Chris Tarrant to Fremantle and injuries to Michael Barlow (and subsequently Tendai Mzungu in the pre-season) and put together a strong opening quarter of 2011. Much as Carlton are showing the ability to come from behind in 2011, the Dockers have shown a capacity to ‘win ugly’ in matches where they perform below their best (see Lions, Brisbane and Bulldogs, Western). They are about to reach a section of the draw (at Rich, WC, at Port, St K) where a quality finals contender should emerge with perhaps three wins out of four – this would see Fremantle reach a 7-2 record before tantalising clashes with Hawthorn in Melbourne and then Essendon at Subiaco.
3. Hawthorn (ranked second pre-season)
Sixth place on ladder (3-2, 118%)
Last 6 – lost to Adel by 20, def Melb by 45, def Rich by 63, def WC by 7, lost to Geel by 19, bye
I found the Hawks to be the most difficult side of all to rank within this list. Consider a scenario where Hawthorn played Collingwood and for a 20-minute burst, both sides performed at their absolute peak – I would tip Hawthorn to prevail, albeit by a narrow margin. The frustration for the Glenferrie faithful must be palpable though, as the gap between the performance ceiling and floor for this particular team is substantial. You could argue a case that the loss to Adelaide and narrow defeat of West Coast only justify the Hawks landing in seventh position on this list – something of an indictment on a team with so much talent at their disposal. Their next six matches include a trip to Sydney as well as matches against the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle and Geelong – this period will divulge much about the character of the team.
A-grade – The major threat
2. Geelong (ranked fifth pre-season)
Second place on ladder (5-0, 143%)
Last 6 – def St K by 1, def Freo by 11, def Port by 79, def Syd by 27, def Haw by 19, bye
A tough early draw that saw them on the road against both Fremantle and Sydney before staring down a premiership hopeful in Hawthorn and they come out the other side 5-0. Chris Scott is, as is his right as a coach, deflecting suggestions that the Cats are the major premiership threat to Collingwood but the cold, hard results point squarely at the campaign of the men from Kardinia Park running deep into September. They have overcome the loss of their best player and their dual premiership coach without so much as a blip on their record – if anything, they look more fresh in 2011. As a diehard footy fan, their Round Eight clash with the Magpies cannot come around quickly enough.
A-plus grade – The alpha dog
1. Collingwood (ranked first pre-season)
First place on ladder (6-0, 178%)
Last 6 – def Port by 75, def NM by 87, def Carl by 28, def Rich by 71, def Ess by 30, def WB by 48
Taking all before them at this stage of the season, Collingwood remain the competition yardstick. Any superlative I use here has been ‘done to death’ already by the broader media. Switching tack a little, what constitutes a sensible price for the Magpies to win a second consecutive premiership? Suppose for a moment that this was Round 24 and they were still in vintage form – it would be reasonable to assess them as only a five per cent chance or thereabouts of elimination before the preliminary final, or around a $1.05 chance of reaching the third week of the finals. What price the Pies in a hypothetical Preliminary Final against Hawthorn and a hypothetical Grand Final against Geelong – perhaps $1.33 in the former and $1.50 in the latter? This would suggest a fair premiership price of around $1.05 x $1.33 x $1.50 = $2.10. Throw in a ‘risk premium’ of sorts to allow for potential key injuries, lapses in form, etc. between now and then, plus a second premium for having your money locked up for 18 more weeks of the regular season and four weeks of finals, and I can’t see a price of any less than $2.50 making for a worthwhile wager.
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
