ANZ Championship – Rd 12 Tips

The final round of the ANZ Championship home and away season is upon us, and while the undefeated Queensland Firebirds have locked down the top spot on the ladder, the race for the remaining finals berths is still on in earnest.

The Waikato/ BOP Magic (9-3, 111%) sit in second position and can assure themselves of a position in the major-semi final with a win at home on Monday night against the lowly Central Pulse. If they lose, the same outcome is still a remote possibility, but the far more likely result would be a slip to third and fourth position and a walk along the sudden death finals tightrope. They cannot miss the finals and with the other major players from a finals perspective completing their matches before Monday night, the Magic will know the consequences of a loss to the Pulse.

The Northern Mystics (8-4, 109%) sit in fifth position and play the Southern Steel away from home. Win and they’re in – a large enough win, a loss by the Magic and a tight enough game between the Vixens and Swifts could even see them nab second position in a photo finish. A loss does not rule them out of the equation either, albeit that the loser of the Vixens v Swifts match would need to drop below them on percentage.

The Melbourne Vixens (8-4, 112%) and NSW Swifts (8-4, 110%) square off in Melbourne on Sunday afternoon. It is unlucky for promoters that this match did not land on the Monday night schedule as the last of the week (and regular season), as the implications of the match for the finals picture would have made for great theatre. The winner of the match could finish anywhere between second and fourth, while the loser will either finish in fourth or more likely, ‘standing on the outside looking in’ from fifth position. 

It promises to be an intriguing final round, with three of the five matches being required to complete the 2011 finals jigsaw puzzle.

Results of Ms Netball tips to date

Head to head winners: 46 selections, 33 winners (72% strike rate)

Recommended bets: 13 selections, eight winners, return of $15.20, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 17%

To recap, for the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where the opinion of bookmakers and the opinion of Ms Netball differ by at least 3.5 goals.

Time to hand it over to Ms Netball for her views on Round Twelve of the ANZ Championship:

Round Twelve Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)

Saturday April 30, 4:20 PM Canterbury Tactix v Queensland Firebirds

Tactix:  1-11 (tenth on ladder), 1-5 at home

Firebirds:  12-0 (first on ladder), 6-0 away

Bookmakers’ line:  Firebirds -13.5 (Sportsbet and Centrebet)

Ms Netball says:  In the past all three games between these two teams have been decided by home court advantage however this time as would be expected when the top team plays the bottom team the Firebirds should  win this one. While the Tactix have only won one game this season their losing margin has often been less than 5 goals. They will need to play their best netball to do as well against the Firebirds who are playing with style and confidence. As I mentioned last week Rosalee Jencke still has not given her bench players much of a run and with the finals only a week away I would hope she will try and get them out on court this week. Firebirds by 14.

Recommended bet: None

Sunday May 1, 2:20 PM Melbourne Vixens v NSW Swifts

Vixens:  8-4 (third on ladder), 5-1 at home

Swifts:  8-4 (fourth on ladder), 4-2 away

Bookmakers’ line:  Vixens -2.5 (Sportsbet), Vixens -1.5 (Centrebet)

Ms Netball says:  True to form I am picking the Swifts again this week despite being wrong last time I picked them against the Vixens. That time they lost by 4 goals with home court advantage. Back then they had Sharelle McMahon and while the Vixens have coped well with her loss I think the Swifts have a slight advantage this time.   This is not just based on my predictable preference for the Swifts but also because in other matches against top 4 teams the Swifts won against both the Magic and the Mystics whereas the Vixens lost both times. It won’t however, be easy and assuming the Mystics will win against the Steel, this game will determine which of these teams makes the finals.  This will, I think, be the match of the round and with two quality teams playing to survive, expect a tough match. Swifts by 1.

Recommended bet: Back the Swifts at the +2.5.

Sunday May 1, 6:20 PM Southern Steel v Northern Mystics

Steel:  4-8 (seventh on ladder), 3-2 at home

Mystics:  8-4 (fifth on ladder), 5-1 away

Bookmakers’ line:  Mystics -4.5 (Sportsbet and Centrebet)

Ms Netball says:  The Steel will be very disappointed with their one goal loss to the Swifts last week and keen to get a final win at home.  This has been their worst season is the history of the championships and I am sure they will be desperate to get another win but I doubt they can do it.  While the Steel are very good defensively they have struggled in attack. In recent weeks a position change in the shooting circle has given them more options. However the Mystics have a versatile defence and they will probably cause the Steel shooters some pain. At the other end of the court Steel GK Leanna de Bruin having a brilliant season but Catherine Latu has also had a good year and has been very solid for the Mystics so these two players may just cancel each other out.  It will be interesting to watch.  I expect another Mystics win, knowing that they need to win to go through to the top 4 the Mystics will be certain to do so. Mystics by 7.

Recommended bet: None as yet, but if the Mystics come into -3.5 or less, back them.

Monday May 2, 7:40 PM Waikato/ BOP Magic v Central Pulse

Magic:  9-3 (second on ladder), 3-2 at home

Pulse:  3-9 (eighth on ladder), 1-4 away

Bookmakers’ line:  Pulse +13.5 (Sportsbet)

Ms Netball says:  When these teams last played in Round 3 this season the Magic scraped together a two goal win; this time however I expect an easier victory for them.  A win will secure them second spot on the ladder and give the important double shot at playing the Grand final, and the Magic will be too resolute for the Pulse. This will be the final game in charge for Pulse coach Yvette McCausland-Durie and while I am sure her players would love to get a farewell win for her their game against the Vixens last week was not encouraging. In fact I believe McCausland-Durie herself could have done more for her team by using some of her bench players.  Hopefully in this last match for the season the Pulse will have a stronger game but having seen how good the Magic were last week against the Thunderbirds I think we are likely to see them secure second on the ladder. Magic by 9. 

Recommended bet: Back the Pulse at the +13.5.

Monday May 2, 7:10 PM Adelaide Thunderbirds v West Coast Fever

Thunderbirds:  5-7 (sixth on ladder), 3-3 at home

Fever:  2-10 (ninth on ladder), 1-4 away

Bookmakers’ line:  Thunderbirds -5.5

Ms Netball says:  I am very undecided about this match. The Thunderbirds have shown some good form in recent weeks but the loss of Emily Beaton really effected their game last week and they played probably their worst game of the season.  In contrast the Fever played one of their best games and should have won against the Firebirds. Once again, had it not been for turnovers and loss of concentration at critical moments in the game the Fever could have won, and their inability to maintain a leading position must be giving the coaching staff a lot of headaches. Of the two I think the Thunderbirds are the team with the greater ability to learn from their loss last week.  I expect coach Jane Woodland Thompson to have come up with a  back-up plan in an attempt to cover for the loss of Beaton. Andrea Gilmore was terrific last week for the Fever and will play a crucial role this week, against the replacement Wing Attack, she could be the difference between the two teams.  Remembering also that in the last match of the 2010 season the Fever caused an upset and beat the Firebirds denying them a top 4 place.  As I said I am very undecided and I choose this one myself on a coin toss so definitely not a recommended bet. Thunderbirds by 2.

Recommended bet: None – this is not a confident tip.

Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo