ANZ Championship – Rd 5 Tips

Before we get to the round five selections of Ms Netball, a quick apology regarding the round four article. I messed up the days in referencing each match and referred to Saturday March 5 as ‘Friday March 5’, Sunday March 6 as ‘Saturday March 6’ and so on. The fixture notes have been corrected – my apologies for any confusion caused. Not that this could take the shine off the debut of Ms Netball, who came up with two winners against the bookmakers’ line from three selections, turning a nice profit in the process.

Let us start with a recap of a few key aspects of betting ‘against the line’ for those who are still unfamiliar with the process.

Because many games have a clear-cut favourite, to attract more interest bookmakers offer a 'line', which is essentially a head-start for the underdog team. For example, in Round 2 bookmakers offered the following line for the Thunderbirds v Vixens match: Adelaide Thunderbirds $1.90 (+13.5) v Melbourne Vixens $1.90 (-13.5). The bookmakers were essentially tipping the Vixens to win by 13.5 (the half goal used to avoid a tie in betting markets). If you thought the Vixens would win by 18 goals, you would think that the Vixens underrated with only a 13.5 goal margin tipped and be well within your rights to bet on the Vixens -13.5. If the Vixens win by 14 or more (as proved to be the case with an 18 goal victory), that bet would have won. Had the Vixens had won by 13 goals or less, or indeed if the Thunderbirds had spring an upset, the Thunderbirds +13.5 would have been the winning option.

For the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where the opinion of bookmakers and the opinion of Ms Netball differ by at least 3.5 goals. Therefore, there will be some games each week where the opinions of bookmakers and Ms Netball are too close to each other and therefore a recommendation of no bet. This is a good thing – you do not want to hand over the edge in the odds to the bookmaker, so pick your battles carefully. In betting against the line (typically at odds of $1.90, as illustrated in the example above), a record of 55 wins per 100 bets would return a profit of 4.5 per cent of turnover (i.e. the total value of bets made), whilst a record of 60 wins per 100 bets would return a profit of 14 per cent of turnover. Those figures do not sound glamorous, but trust me, to make any level of profit on betting is a good outcome, and to make a profit of more than 10 per cent (relative to the amount you’ve outlaid) is terrific.

Home court advantage is minimal in cases where two teams from the same country play each other, perhaps worth no more than two or three goals. For example, supposing that you favour the Swifts by nine goals against the Fever at a neutral venue, you might suggest that the line should be Swifts -11 for a game in Sydney and Swifts -7 for game in Perth. However, when evaluating an ‘international’ match-up, the home team has a substantial advantage, perhaps worth as much as six or seven goals. For example, supposing that you favour the Vixens by four goals against the Mystics at a neutral venue, you might suggest that the line should be Vixens -10 for a game in Melbourne but Mystics -2 for a game in Auckland.

Results of Ms Netball tips to date

Head to head winners: Five selections, four winners (80% strike rate)

Recommended bets: Three selections, two winners, return of $3.80, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 27%

Time to hand it over to Ms Netball for the inside word on Round Five of the ANZ Championships:

Round Five Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)

Saturday March 12, 2:20 PM Melbourne Vixens v West Coast Fever 

Vixens: 2-1 (fourth on ladder), 0-0 home

Fever: 1-3 (seventh on ladder), 1-1 away

Bookmakers’ line*: TBC

Ms Netball says:Much improved against the Swifts last week, the Fever will need to play four consistent quarters against the experienced Vixens. Both teams’ defensive ends struggled with penalties last week and this will probably prove to be the key as both teams are strong under the post.  This is the Fever’s second consecutive away game, meaning that fatigue may well play a part after another long haul from Perth, I expect the Vixens all court experience to prevail. Vixens by 14.

Recommended bet: TBC. Back the Vixens if -10.5 or less, back the Fever if +17.5 or more.

 

Sunday March 13, 1:50 PM Adelaide Thunderbirds v Queensland Firebirds

Thunderbirds: 2-3 (sixth on ladder), 1-1 at home

Firebirds: 4-0 (first on ladder), 1-0 away

Bookmakers’ line*: TBC

Ms Netball says:The Thunderbirds’ very young defenders have shown some improvement every week with Sharni Layton in particular showing great determination. Coming up against the 196 cm shooting machine Romelda Aiken will be a big challenge, especially as the Firebirds also have another major goal scorer in Natalie Medhurst.  The last time these two teams played the Firebirds romped home by 23 but I expect this time the Thunderbirds will be better prepared. Firebirds by 12.

Recommended bet: TBC. Back the Firebirds if -8.5 or less, back the Thunderbirds if +15.5 or more.

 

Sunday March 13, 6:20 PM Waikato/BOP Magic v Northern Mystics

Magic: 4-0 (second on ladder), 1-0 at home

Mystics: 3-1 (third on ladder), 1-0 away

Bookmakers’ line*: TBC

Ms Netball says:The Mystics team have become one of the fashionable tips this year, with many pundits claiming they can go all the way and win the championship. Talk is cheap though – the Mystics must realise that if they fail to pass the litmus test of the Magic this week, hopes of championship glory in 2011 will become slim. Based on last week’s performances where the Mystics upset the Vixens and the Magic had a less than convincing extra time win over the lowly Tactix, I am tipping the Mystics in a close match. Despite their not having won against the Magic in four years of competition (including a 45-39 home loss in Round 3 of this season), I think the Mystics have found their rhythm and can overcome the hoodoo. Mystics by 3.

Recommended bet: TBC. Back the Mystics if they are not giving away a head-start, back the Magic if +6.5 or more.

 

Monday March 14, 7:40 PM Southern Steel v Central Pulse

Steel: 1-3 (eighth on ladder), 0-0 at home

Pulse: 0-4 (tenth on ladder), 0-1 away

Bookmakers’ line*: TBC

Ms Netball says:Both teams suffered bad losses in Australia last week and will be keen to rebound quickly.  The only win for the Steel so far this year was a 45-43 away victory against the Pulse in Round 3 and I expect them to win the return bout this week in another close match.  While the Pulse displayed signs of improvement early in the season, last week’s loss to the Thunderbirds was very disappointing. I would like to see the Pulse score their maiden win of 2011 and they have the personnel to do it, but until they show some connection between players and better concentration at critical moments it doesn’t seem likely. Steel by 5.

Recommended bet: TBC. Back the Steel if -1.5 or less, back the Pulse if +8.5 or more.

 

Monday March 14, 7:40 PM NSW Swifts v Canterbury Tactix

Swifts: 2-2 (fifth on ladder), 2-1 at home

Tactix: 0-2 (ninth on ladder), 0-0 away

Bookmakers’ line*: TBC

Ms Netball says:The Swifts have not had the best start to the season – while they have a very strong line-up on paper, the team has experienced some trouble with player combinations. The Tactix played above themselves against the Magic last week and Kasey Evering is likely to play a big role defending Catherine Cox, whose shooting has been well below expectations this year. The return of Tactix captain Maree Bowden to the court has also injected greater energy and led to much better movement in attack for the Tactix. However, given the Swifts overall class and the deplorable record of New Zealand teams on Australian soil, on balance I think the Swifts at home will take the points. Swifts by 12.

Recommended bet: TBC. Back the Swifts if -8.5 or less, back the Tactix if +15.5 or more.

Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

* Bookmakers had not yet published lines for these games at the time of publication of this article. We will endeavour to add these lines (and note any consequential recommended bets) as they become available via the comments section each week.