Apprenticeships of the VFL and AFL
Those who do not learn from the past are condemned to repeat it. It’s a powerful phrase and one borne out so many times in history that arguing its validity on these pages would be a waste of time. Rather, the early years (or ‘apprenticeships’) of the most recent sides to enter the VFL/ AFL are likely to be instructive when thinking about how the Gold Coast Suns and Greater Western Sydney (GWS) Giants are likely to progress over the upcoming years. Whilst the competition (and indeed the sport of Australian Rules football) has evolved over the past 25 years, the past can still offer us some insights into the future, especially when it relates to the creation of new teams outside of Victoria. Let’s start with 1987 and the introduction of the Brisbane Bears and West Coast Eagles into what was then the VFL:
Brisbane Bears (1987-1989)
1987: 6-16 H&A record (79%) – 13th position of 14 teams
1988: 7-15 H&A record (75%) – 13th position of 14 teams
1989: 8-14 H&A record (79%) – Tenth position of 14 teams
The Bears opened their winning account in the VFL on the opening night of the 1987 season, when they led North Melbourne at every change and went on to win by 33 points in front of a paltry crowd of just over 14,000 at the MCG (there’d be a riot at AFL House if the opening fixture of the 2011 season attracted only 14,000 fans). They also defeated Geelong by 19 points at Kardinia Park in Round 2 and after two losses, picked up their first victory at home with a five point win over Melbourne to take their record to 3-2. However the Bears only won two of their next 16 matches, and it was only a Round 22 win over Richmond that enabled them to avoid the wooden spoon in their opening campaign.
After an extremely slow start to 1988, the Bears strung four wins on end to reach a 4-4 record after eight rounds, but again ran out of momentum very quickly and beat only St Kilda home.
1989 brought with it an extended slump in the first half of the season for the Bears, with a 4-13 record after 17 rounds seeing them staring down the barrel of their first wooden spoon. However, upset victories over North Melbourne, Fitzroy and Carlton and a massive boilover against Hawthorn (one of only three losses for the Hawks all season) saw them leapfrog a fairly congested cellar-dwelling battle and post their best season finish to date. It would be another six seasons before the Bears first appeared in the finals, sneaking into eighth position in 1995. A further six seasons and a merger with Fitzroy would pass before the Brisbane Lions won their first of three consecutive premierships in 2001.
West Coast Eagles (1987-1989)
1987: 11-11 H&A record (98%) – Eighth position of 14 teams
1988: 13-9 H&A record (112%) – Fourth position of 14 teams – lost the elimination final by 2 pts.
1989: 7-15 H&A record (87%) – 11th position of 14 teams
The Eagles kicked off their club history with a 14 point win against Richmond at Subiaco, rallying with a nine goal final quarter after trailing at every change. After ten rounds they were sitting pretty in fourth position on the ladder with a 6-4 record, but promptly lost four of their next five matches and spent the remainder of the season hovering around the 50 per cent winning strike rate, missing the finals by one win and some percentage.
The 1988 season began in a very promising fashion for West Coast as they won their opening three matches and at second on the ladder with a 5-2 record after Round seven. A slump of five consecutive losses saw them drop to eighth on the ladder after Round twelve and with five weeks to go until the finals they were still languishing in seventh place, but stormed home with five straight victories to take fourth place on the ladder. However, these were still the days where all finals matches were played in Melbourne, so despite finishing above fifth-placed Melbourne, West Coast had to travel to Waverley for an elimination final that they would lose by a heart breaking two points.
The performances of the Eagles in the first two seasons augured well for a strong tilt at the 1989 premiership, but in an extremely sharp turn in form, the Eagles lost their first four games and reached the midpoint of the season in last place with a 1-10 record. They continued to stumble through the next five weeks and were still in last place after Round 15 with a 2-13 record but finished fairly strongly with five wins over the last seven weeks. Nonetheless, for a team who demonstrated such potential the previous year it was an abject disappointment. The disappointment was short-lived though, with West Coast making their first Grand Final in 1991 and winning premierships in 1992 and 1994.
Adelaide Crows (1991-1993)
1991: 10-12 H&A record (89%) – Ninth position of 15 teams
1992: 11-11 H&A record (101%) – Ninth position of 15 teams.
1993: 12-8 H&A record (118%) – Fifth position of 15 teams – won an elimination final by 15 points, lost the major semi-final by 18 points, lost the preliminary final by 11 points.
The pride of South Australia put the football world on notice in the opening match of the 1991 season, when they eviscerated Hawthorn by 86 points at Football Park. However the Crows went into something of a slump for the next couple of months and were in 12th position on the ladder after Round 8. They fought back to be just outside the top six with a 7-6 record just after mid-season, but couldn’t advance any further beyond a 50 per cent winning strike rate and ran out of momentum late in the season.
1992 begun in a reasonable fashion for the Crows with three wins from their first five matches and a spot inside the top six, but the wheels quickly fell off as the Crows slipped to a 6-10 record with only six matches left in the season. A late rally saw them win five of these matches, but with St Kilda needing 14 wins to snare the final top six position from Carlton on percentage, the Crows were never really in the finals frame.
The following season was one of the most topsy-turvy in recent history, and Adelaide were right in the thick of it. They started with three straight wins, followed these up with three straight losses, reached fourth on the ladder by Round 16 with a 10-5 record, lost their next two games to drop to seventh and finally won two of their last three to make the finals in fifth spot. After a 15 point elimination final win against Hawthorn, errant kicking (8.20.68) cost them in a major semi-final loss to Carlton. All looked redeemable when they led Essendon by 42 points at half time in the preliminary final, but the eventual premiers piled on eleven goals to two in the second half to overpower the Crows and win by 11 points. For Adelaide, it was a heartbreaking and unpredictable end to an unpredictable season. Their time would come in 1997 and 1998, as Malcolm Blight helped to orchestrate back-to-back flags for the ‘older brother’ of the South Australian sides.
Fremantle Dockers (1995-1997)
1995: 8-14 H&A record (93%) – 13th position of 16 teams
1996: 7-15 H&A record (92%) – 13th position of 16 teams.
1997: 10-12 H&A record (92%) – 12th position of 16 teams
The new boys from the west with the dubious club song were the first of the clubs noted here to be beaten in their opening fixture, with Fremantle suffering a five point loss to Richmond at the MCG. The Dockers opened their premiership account in the third round when they defeated Fitzroy by 43 points at the Whitten Oval and followed this up with a 14 point win against Geelong at the WACA. They had reached a 3-3 record by the time of the first ever derby against West Coast, but were on the wrong end of an 85 point drubbing in that match. At the midway point of the season the Dockers were in seventh spot on the ladder but went on to lose their next six games and stumble home well out of the finals race.
Despite a derby loss to West Coast in the opening round, Fremantle began the 1996 season in promising fashion, winning three of their first five games and sitting seventh on the ladder. Eleven weeks later, their season win tally had only increased to four and only Footscray and whipping boys Fitzroy sat below them on the ladder. Whilst three wins in the last six games helped to avoid abject embarrassment, no signs had yet emerged that the Dockers were a force to be reckoned with.
The 1997 Fremantle season could be summed up in two words: lost opportunity. The Dockers hovered around the fringes of the top eight all season and with five rounds to go sat in tenth position, but were only one victory and percentage behind second-placed Adelaide in an extremely congested ladder. With three rounds to go they were ninth on the ladder (but only one win behind fourth) with a 10-9 record before losses to competition front-runners St Kilda and Geelong left them in eleventh spot with one week to go, half a game behind Brisbane and Port Adelaide who were tied for eighth and with wooden spoon-elect Melbourne left to play in the final round. Brisbane and tenth-placed Carlton both lost, leaving the door open for Port Adelaide and Fremantle to assume eighth spot with a win. The Dockers led Melbourne at quarter time but crumbled from there en route to a 40 point loss, the pain of which was amplified when Port Adelaide also lost and Brisbane fell derrière-backwards into the finals. It would be another six seasons before the Dockers played finals footy – a quarter final loss to Essendon in 2003.
Port Adelaide Power (1997-1999)
1997: 10-1-11 H&A record (92%) – Ninth position of 16 teams
1998: 9-1-12 H&A record (96%) – Tenth position of 16 teams.
1999: 12-10 H&A record (90%) – Seventh position of 16 teams – lost a quarter final by 44 points.
The Power were anything but in their introduction to the AFL, receiving a 79 point thumping from Collingwood. The first win of the Port Adelaide AFL era came in the third round with a 39 point victory over Geelong at Football Park, followed by an 11 point win over Adelaide in the first ever ‘Showdown’. As noted in the discussion for Fremantle, Port Adelaide could have made the finals in their first season in the AFL with a final round victory over minor premiers St Kilda, or with a victory over beaten in Round 21. Or indeed, if they had beaten Brisbane in their Round 20 encounter instead of playing out a draw and eventually missing eighth spot on percentage to the Lions.
The 1998 season was another one of missed opportunities for Port Adelaide. The Power spent much of the season hovering just outside the top eight, played in a second draw in as many seasons with the Brisbane Lions in Round 12 and reached their Round 18 clash with North Melbourne at Manuka Oval in tenth spot on the ladder, half a win behind seventh placed Adelaide. In a game best remembered for a spectacular Winston Abraham mark, they led at quarter time with the aid of an assisting wind but were dismantled in the second and fourth quarters en route to a 55 point loss. Back in the day, the coaches’ boxes at Manuka were temporary and placed on the eastern side of the ground beyond the grass hill where a group of uni students (yours truly included) were watching the game and taking in a few liquid refreshments. As Port’s head coach Jack Cahill made his way down through the roped-off lane between fans after the match, my mate Sutho wandered over to the ropes, patted Cahill on the back and added a “Bad luck, champ!” as the Power’s finals campaign was teetering on the brink. Pot Adelaide would not recover from the loss, missing the finals by ten premiership points.
The disappointments of the first two seasons seemed forgotten as the Power opened their 1999 campaign with three straight wins. However, the wheel turned abruptly over the next nine weeks and Port found themselves languishing in 14th position on the ladder after Round 12 with an unflattering 5-7 record. A scrappy win over Hawthorn and a nail-biting one point win over last-placed Collingwood steadied the ship before a convincing win over competition front-runners Essendon announced the Power as a finals contender. After Round 16 they reached sixth on the ladder and maintained a position in the top eight for the rest of the season, finishing in seventh position but only missing out on fifth place as a result of a poor percentage. On a wet Saturday afternoon at the MCG, the Power’s initiation to finals football came via a vintage Wayne Carey performance as the Kangaroos cruised to a 44 point victory. Port Adelaide would become a key player in future finals series before Mark Williams unveiled one of the worst acceptance speeches of all time in 2004 when collecting Port Adelaide’s first AFL premiership cup.
Summary
So what did we learn from these five cases? I believe that there are three key lesssons:
(1) The five new teams failed to collect a wooden spoon between them in these ‘apprenticeship’ years. An extremely relevant point when you consider the very short quotes of between $2.10 and $2.40 currently available about the Suns taking home the spoon in 2011, or the potentially even shorter quotes about GWS doing likewise in 2012.
(2) With three wins and a narrow loss by the Dockers in Melbourne, the newly formed sides tended to punch well above their weight on debut. Bear that in mind before you go racing into a bet on the Blues at the (likely) minus when they head to the Gabba on April 2 to become the Suns’ first opponent in the AFL season proper.
(3) The number of cases where a new side made the finals appear to be pretty limited, but that was dictated in part by the operation of final five/ final six systems during the formative years for the Bears, Eagles and Crows. A better proxy for finals appearances these days is winning half of your matches, a benchmark that was met twice by both West Coast and Adelaide and once by Port Adelaide. This would seem to indicate that a finals appearance from the Suns by 2013 is not far-fetched – the Gold Coast does not have anything like the Australian Rules heritage of South Australia and Western Australia, but the substantial evolution of the nature of the draft (and in particular, the draft concessions provided to the Suns) should help to negate this.
In a snakes-and-ladders season preview a few weeks back I predicted that the first finals campaign for the Suns would be likely to occur in 2013 or 2014, and none of history’s lessons have persuaded me to think otherwise. I may have to upgrade my rather lowly views of the GWS franchise however….
Thanks to Ryan Pierse/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
