ANZ Championship – Rd 8 Tips
Round eight of the ANZ Championship sees a number of teams playing twice in the space of four days – the Vixens, Firebirds, Tactix and Steel all play on Thursday evening before backing up on either the Sunday (Vixens, Tactix and Steel) or Monday (Firebirds). Meanwhile, the Central Pulse play on both the Saturday and Monday night, and the Swifts do not play at all in Round Eight. How such a scheduling shemozzle can occur is beyond me, but then again I’m not in charge of the ANZ Championship fixture list. Suffice to say that if this occurred in the NRL or AFL, there would be public outrage.
By virtue of the extended (and rather complicated) nature of the Round Eight draw, today’s column will include tips for the Thursday night games, with Ms Netball’s comments and tips for the remainder of the round to come in the comments section tomorrow.
Results of Ms Netball tips to date
Head to head winners: 21 selections, 15 winners (71% strike rate)
Recommended bets*: Eight selections, five winners, return of $9.50, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 19%
*Please note: These results include a recommended bet on the Swifts -8.5 in Round Six (Ms Netball tipped the Swifts by 12) which was noted in the comments section of the round seven selections column by a reader with the member name ‘Sportznut’, who noted that such a line was definitely available at Centrebet. To that end, if readers do see an available bookmaker line for any given match (or indeed matches), feel free to add a comment at the time and we will include any subsequent recommended bets in the reporting of results.
To recap, for the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where the opinion of bookmakers and the opinion of Ms Netball differ by at least 3.5 goals.
Time to hand it over to Ms Netball for her views on Round Eight of the ANZ Championship:
Round Eight Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)
Thursday March 31, 7:40 PM Melbourne Vixens v Queensland Firebirds
Vixens: 4-2 (fourth on ladder), 2-0 home
Firebirds: 7-0 (first on ladder), 4-0 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Ms Netball says: The Firebirds are currently playing with such assurance that it is hard to imagine anyone beating them. This round I think both the Vixens tonight and the Magic on Monday night will both come close, but the Firebirds will prevail. Despite home court advantage (a court on which they have yet to lose this season), the Vixens have yet to find their groove – they are close but not quite there yet. Firebirds by 3.
Recommended bet:TBC. Back the Firebirds if not giving away a head start, back the Vixens if +6.5 or more.
Thursday March 31, 7:40 PM Canterbury Tactix v Southern Steel
Tactix: 0-5 (tenth on ladder), 0-2 at home
Steel: 3-4 (sixth on ladder), 1-4 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Ms Netball says: Despite the 15-goal loss in their game against the Vixens last week, the Tactix did play better netball. They are expected to break their win drought in the not too distant future by none less than Liz Ellis! The introduction of Jo Trip to their defence end and Charlotte Kight finding her rhythm at WD have given the Tactix more defensive strength which will be needed against the Steels confident delivery into their goal circle. This will be the Tactix first home game since the earthquake I would really like to see them get their first win for the season but having seen the Steel hold out against the Thunderbirds comeback last round makes me think they will get the win again this week. Steel by 2.
Recommended bet: None – this is not a confident tip.
Saturday April 2, 4:20 PM Northern Mystics v Central Pulse
Mystics: 4-3 (fifth on ladder), 2-2 home
Pulse: 1-6 (ninth on ladder), 0-2 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Ms Netball says: Preview to come on Friday
Recommended bet:TBC
Sunday April 3, 4:20 PM Melbourne Vixens v Southern Steel
Vixens: 4-2 (fourth on ladder), 2-0 home
Steel: 3-4 (sixth on ladder), 1-4 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Ms Netball says: Preview to come on Friday
Recommended bet:TBC
Sunday April 3, 6:20 PM Canterbury Tactix v Adelaide Thunderbirds
Tactix: 0-5 (tenth on ladder), 0-2 at home
Thunderbirds: 3-5 (seventh on ladder), 1-3 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Ms Netball says: Preview to come on Friday
Recommended bet:TBC
Monday April 4, 7:40 PM Central Pulse v West Coast Fever
Pulse: 1-6 (ninth on ladder), 1-4 at home
Fever: 2-6 (eighth on ladder), 1-2 away
Bookmakers’ line*:TBC
Ms Netball says: Preview to come on Friday
Recommended bet:TBC
Monday April 4, 7:40 PM Queensland Firebirds v Waikato/BOP Magic
Firebirds: 7-0 (first on ladder), 3-0 at home
Magic: 6-1 (second on ladder), 2-1 away
Bookmakers’ line*:TBC
Ms Netball says: Preview to come on Friday
Recommended bet:TBC
Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
* Once again, bookmakers had not yet published lines for these games at the time of publication of this article. We will endeavour to add these lines (and note any consequential recommended bets) as they become available via the comments section each week.
Would be interested to hear Ms Netball's thought on the potentially career-ending injury suffered by Sharelle McMahon last night? A ruptured achilles is not something you come back from quickly…
Saturday April 2, 4:20 PM Northern Mystics v Central Pulse
Ms Netball says: The Pulse have shown some good play in recent weeks and another win looks doable, however the Mystics will secure a place in the top-4 with a win against the Pulse. The Vixens defeat and the loss of their star Sharelle McMahon earlier in the round will has given the Mystics more opportunity for a top-4 position and they will want to ensure they take it. The roles of both WD’s will be an interesting feature in this match and I look forward to seeing how both Pritchard and Cullen who have shown big improvement this year, perform. Mystics by 10.
Recommended bet: TBC. Back the Mystics if -6.5 or less, back the Pulse if +13.5 or more.
Sunday April 3, 4:20 PM Melbourne Vixens v Southern Steel
Ms Netball says: As mentioned above, the injury of Sharelle McMahon last night is a huge loss for the Vixens. However I still expect the Vixens to come out on top in a closely fought match. The Steels meltdown in the 3rd quarter of their match against the Tactix was disappointing, and it will be difficult for them to pick themselves up. Fatigue is going to feature in this match, this being the Steels third match in seven days and the Vixens third in eight days. As the injury to McMahon shows this is just unfair and harmful for the players. The Vixens have the additional disadvantage of their other GA also being injured so while I think they still have the players to win this match I am not sure how they will handle the psychological impact of these injuries and therefore this is not a recommended bet Vixens by 3.
Recommended bet: None – with McMahon out for the Vixens, this is not a confident tip.
Sunday April 3, 6:20 PM Canterbury Tactix v Adelaide Thunderbirds
Ms Netball says: Can the Tactix do it again? It will be interesting to see if the Tactix’s win can inspire them to a better performance again this week. The addition of Jo Trip in their line has really given them a boost but her opposite number Erin Bell is also playing really well for the Tbirds. The match-up between the two Jamaican imports Kasey Evering and Carla Borrego will be an important factor in this match. Again, fatigue is likely to play a big part, for the Tactix their second home game in four days while for the Thunderbirds it is the second gruelling trip from Adelaide to NZ in eight days and perhaps a win is too much to expect. However, they are a gutsy young side and will have learnt from their loss last week. I think they might just do it. Thunderbirds by 2.
Recommended bet: None –this is not a confident tip.
Monday April 4, 7:40 PM Central Pulse v West Coast Fever
Ms Netball says:The Fevers game against the Magic last week was a fantastic achievement by them. They played four consistent quarters and their defence was excellent. Shae Bolton showed how good she can be in both attack and defence, and if she can follow up with another good performance her team will be hard to beat. Daya Pritchard also put in her best game for the Pulse against the Swifts last week so the midcourt will be crucial in this match. Due to the different interpretation between umpiring in NZ and Australia the penalty count for the Fever will be an important factor and could determine the result.Fever by 1.
Recommended bet: TBC. With such a close game in store, you will want a head start either way. Back the Fever if +2.5 or more, back the Pulse if +4.5 or more.
Monday April 4, 7:40 PM Queensland Firebirds v Waikato/BOP Magic
Ms Netball says:Expect this match-up between the top two teams from both countries to be a battle. The Firebirds on a eight win streak are a due for a loss and fatigue could be a factor this being their second game top of the table game in five days. For the Magic it will be their second match in Australia in a week and their battle against the Fever last Monday night has probably left them a bit weary. Across the court the match ups between both teams are very equal but I think home court advantage will see the Firebirds take the win. Firebirds by 2.
Recommended bet: TBC. With such a close game in store, you will want a head start either way. Back the Firebirds if +1.5 or more, back the Magic if +5.5 or more.
Ms Netball tipped the Fever by 1 – Sportsbet have offered the Fever +3.5, so that is a recommended bet.
Centrebet currently has Magic +8.5 v Firebirds.
They have them $5 to win outright which is longer than other bookies suggesting you probably won't do any better than +8.5.
Thanks very much for the update.
To recap/ summarise, the recommended bets for Rd 8 are the Fever +3.5 (Sportsbet) and the Magic +8.5 (Centrebet).
2 bets. 2 wins!
The recommended bets for Rd 8 were the Fever +3.5 (Sportsbet) and the Magic +8.5 (Centrebet).
As the Fever only lost by 2 goals and the Magic only lost by 4 goals, that is another two winning bets at the line!
Saturday April 2, 4:20 PM Northern Mystics v Central Pulse
Recommended bet: None, as Mystics are -9.5 (Sportsbet and TAB Sportsbet).
Sunday April 3, 4:20 PM Melbourne Vixens v Southern Steel
Recommended bet: None – with McMahon out for the Vixens, this is not a confident tip.
Sunday April 3, 6:20 PM Canterbury Tactix v Adelaide Thunderbirds
Recommended bet: None –this is not a confident tip.
Monday April 4, 7:40 PM Queensland Firebirds v Waikato/BOP Magic
Recommended bet: TBC, but with the Magic at $4.00 (TAB Sportsbet) and $4.50 (Sportsbet) to win the match, a line of artound +6.5 or +7.5 is likely to be in play, so back the Magic when lines for the match become available.
My thoughts about McMahons injury are that it is indeed likely to end her netball playing career. You are right, a ruptured achilles is not something you come back from quickly, Jo Sutton suffered one early last season and was out for the rest of the year. Sharelle has been in great form and it is a huge loss for the Vixens and the Australian team. For Sharelle personally it is also very sad, perhaps I am wrong but I thought she might retire after the World Championships in Singapore. I am sure that this year Sharelle would have been looking forward to leading the Vixens to the ANZ Grandfinal as well as Australia winning the World Champs. That now looks unlikely (although I still think Australia can still will without her). It would have been the fitting end to a brilliant netball career. I think all netball fans will be disappointed – even the New Zealand ones! Having said that Sharelle is one of the most determined players I have ever seen so I would not want to rule out a comeback. My feeling is that we are more likely to see her in the future as a commentator for the ANZ Championships and I think she would do a fine job in that role. I would also like to add that I think this season draw is just too tough on the players. Cliff is right if this scheduling occurred in the NRL or AFL, there would be public outrage.
Yes, I'm pretty sure the plan would have been to retire after the World Championships with (hopefully for her) an ANZ title and a World Champs win. Who knows? Maybe now she might want to go around again next year and try to finish on a better note. But somehow I think this will be it, and I also expect to see her doing commentary next year.
Yes, it's really quite bizarre this year. The World Championships are on in Singapore in mid July and for some reason, the powers that be seem to think that Australia and New Zealand need 2 whole months to prepare for it. So, as a result, they've really compromised the ANZ competition (unnecessarily in my opinion) by starting it much earlier and having all these double rounds. All teams have them during the year, but even so, it still seems unfair. And all that still doesn't explain the crazy anomoly of Swifts not playing at all this week. They're the only team in the whole comp which has a bye week. Weird.
Still a great sport though.