April 2 Racing Selections
Racing tips this week will cover the April 2 meetings at Moonee Valley, Rosehill (the Golden Slipper meeting) and Oakbank. Last week’s results were yet another timely reminder of the additional value on offer when taking a price other than the starting price (SP), particular with regard to odds provided by corporate bookmakers. Galizani won at an SP of $6, but her top fluctuation was $9 and as much as $10 was on offer in Saturday morning pre-post markets. Zingaling won at $11 SP, but many corporate bookmaker products (Sportsbet’s ‘City Best’, Centrebet’s ‘Best of the Best’, Sportingbet’s ‘Maxidiv’, etc.) were paying out around $14 per dollar invested. The moral of the story: you can usually do a little better than the SP, which will hopefully be teamed up with more winning tips to make us all some money!
Results for March 26
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Moonee Valley – Lady Lynette ($4.60 SP) – second
Morphetville – Beaded ($2.50) – second
March 26 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 27 selections, seven winners, SP return of $27.80, profit on turnover (POT) = 3%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Caulfield – Carrara ($9.50 SP) – unplaced
Rosehill – Galizani ($6.00) – Won
Rosehill – Tabulate ($13.00) – unplaced
Rosehill – Zinglaing ($11.00) – Won
March 26 Results: Four selections, two winners, SP return of $17.00
Overall Results: 19 selections, four winners, SP return of $34.00, profit on turnover (POT) = 79%
All tips
Overall Results: 46 selections, 11 winners, SP return of $61.80, profit on turnover (POT) = 34%
Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Here are the selections for this Saturday:
Saturday April 2
Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 4 Lovemelikearock
A quality mare who posted a win at Listed level over a mile during the Melbourne spring carnival, raced in the Group 1 Coolmore Classic at her last start and ran fourth at Group 3 level at the start prior, she should be well suited by the significant drop in class tomorrow. Add to that the likelihood of track conditions that are likely to suit (she does not perform well on slow or heavy tracks) and I think she’ll take some beating.
Race 8 No. 1 De Fine Lago
A very unlucky fifth placing at Caulfield last time around belies his current form. While his overall record stands at five wins and seven placings from 21 starts, this improves to four wins and six placings from only 13 starts when excluding his first and second-up runs. He also boasts a win and a placing from two starts at the distance as well as a win and a second from three starts at Moonee Valley. I think he can atone for his unlucky last run this time around.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 1 Theseo
In Group 1 WFA races, I am quite partial to selecting proven Group 1 WFA performers. Especially when they have a history of improving significantly second up (Theseo has won four races from eight second-up attempts), can race handy to the speed and have the addition of blinkers to help sharpen them up. Sure, I’ll hop on the Theseo bandwagon for this race – and by the looks of his generous pre-post odds, there are plenty of seats available.
Race 8 No. 1 Luen Yat Forever
Despite not posting a win in Australia he has been racing in great heart, often against stronger calibre opposition. He carried 59.5 kgs when losing a photo finish to Older Than Time at his last start and seems reasonably well treated with 57.5 kgs in this race. I expect his class to prove the difference.
Race 9 No. 3 Atomic Force
For a long time I thought he was a bit of a cat, but the critical issue for him does appear to have been determined this preparation – he simply does not run out a strong 1200 metres. His overall record stands at seven wins from 25 starts, but this improves to four wins (and a further three placings) from just nine starts over 1100 metres, including wins at his last two races. My advice is to back him now before the general punting public starts to follow suit.
Oakbank (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 4 No. 5 Brough Superior
He has had three runs back on the flat this preparation to regain some fitness after a long layoff. Prior this layoff his only two career attempts over the sticks thus far netted a three-length win at his hurdles debut and a second in the Houlahan Hurdle at Sandown behind Big Noise. I fancy that a return to jumping will also mean a return to the winners circle for this evergreen ten-year old.
Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
