ANZ Championship – Rd 9 Tips

With only four weeks of the regular season (including only one more of those ungodly ‘super rounds’) to go and the Firebirds all but locked in for a number one seed, attention turns to the race for the last three finals spots. With only one win separating second from fifth, the scene is set for two extremely important Round Nine encounters – the Vixens host the Thunderbirds in what is surely Adelaide’s last shot at entering the race for the final four, while on Monday night the Magic host the Swifts in what promises to be the match of the round. All the while, Ms Netball continues to build a tipping record that makes me glad she has become part of the Making the Nut team – my bookmakers have been less enthusiastic.

Results of Ms Netball tips to date

Head to head winners: 28 selections, 20 winners (71% strike rate)

Recommended bets: Ten selections, seven winners, return of $13.30, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 33%

To recap, for the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where the opinion of bookmakers and the opinion of Ms Netball differ by at least 3.5 goals.

Time to hand it over to Ms Netball for her views on Round Nine of the ANZ Championship – for the sake of posterity, we’re also including her thoughts on last night’s rescheduled Round Three match between the Tactix and Mystics, though obviously there is no recommended bet as the match has come and gone:

Rescheduled Round Three Match Tip

Thursday April 7, 7:40 PM Canterbury Tactix v Northern Mystics

Tactix (before last night's match): 1-6 (tenth on ladder), 1-3 at home

Mystics (before last night's match): 5-3 (fifth on ladder), 2-1 away

Ms Netball says (or said, in this case): This match was originally scheduled for Round Three but was postponed because of the Christchurch earthquake, and confusingly it is now being played in Auckland but as a Tactix home match. It makes life difficult for the Tactix, who have to follow up with another away game against the Steel in two days! In recent weeks, former Australian Goal Shooter Vicky Wilson has assisted the Tactix goal circle and that has coincided with an improvement in their play, and Donna Wilkins and Anna Thompson are combining for some nice work in the goal circle.  However, their defence still needs to tighten up, and this will be especially true against the Mystics slick attack. The Mystics have strength on the bench and are likely to dominate across the court. Mystics by 10.

 

Round Nine Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)

Saturday April 9, 4:20 PM Southern Steel v Canterbury Tactix

Steel: 3-6 (seventh on ladder), 2-0 at home

Tactix: 1-7 (tenth on ladder), 0-3 away

Bookmakers’ line*: TBC

Ms Netball says: Last time these two teams played the Tactix caused an upset and had their first win in 17 matches.  I don’t think they can do it again. Perhaps neither team is quite there in terms of their fitness, and fatigue will probably be an issue, in particular for the Tactix who due to the Christchurch earthquake have had an interrupted season and somewhat unfairly will be playing their fourth match in ten days. Losing as often as they have must be exhausting and I would like to see them get another win but I fear it will be too much to ask. The Steel have under-performed this year, given that many of their players are current or former Silver Ferns they really should have had more wins, so they will be looking to improve.  Hopefully it will be a close match but I expect the Steel to win. Steel by 5.

Recommended bet: TBC – back the Steel if -1.5 or less, back the Tactix if +8.5 or more.

 

Sunday April 10, 2:20 PM Melbourne Vixensv Adelaide Thunderbirds

Vixens: 5-3 (fourth on ladder), 3-1 at home

Thunderbirds: 4-5 (sixth on ladder), 2-3 away

Bookmakers’ line*: TBC

Ms Netball says: This match will, I think, be won or lost in the Vixens goal circle.  In last week’s match, following the loss of Sharelle McMahon, we saw too much hesitancy and tentative play in the Vixens’ goal end. They will need to show more confidence in going to the post if they want to win. If the Thunderbirds’ young defenders are able to disrupt play in the Vixens circle they could cause an upset!  Beth Shimmin’s first full game at Goal Keeper for the Thunderbirds last week was impressive and Sharni Layton has had a terrific season, but Jo Sutton needs to stop giving away so many penalties. In the end though, the Vixens have the advantage of experience and ultimately I think this will see them take the win in a close match. Vixens by 3.

Recommended bet: TBC – back the Vixens if not giving away a head start, back the Thunderbirds if +6.5 or more.

 

Sunday April 10, 6:20 PM Central Pulse v Queensland Firebirds

Pulse: 2-7 (eighth on ladder), 2-4 at home

Firebirds: 9-0 (first on ladder), 5-0 away

Bookmakers’ line*: TBC

Ms Netball says: For the first time in ANZ Championship history, the Pulse has won two games in a season.  This week they come up against the top of the table Firebirds and I don’t think they can do it again.  The two big challenges for the Pulse are stopping Romelda Aiken’s prolific shooting, and at the other end getting past the Firebirds’ torrid defence.  The Firebirds’ Laura Geitz is in great form and there is good understanding between all the Firebirds defensive players who will make life tough for the Pulse. Firebirds by 11.

Recommended bet: TBC – back the Firebirds if -7.5 or less, back the Pulse if +14.5 or more.

 

Monday April 11, 5:40 PM West Coast Fever v Northern Mystics

Fever: 2-7 (ninth on ladder), 1-4 at home

Mystics: 6-3 (third on ladder), 3-1 away

Bookmakers’ line*:TBC

Ms Netball says: This is a hard one because the Mystics should easily win this but they have never won in Australia and this is sure to be playing on their minds. Following their win last night, the Mystics are currently in the top four and will need to win this one if they want to play in the finals; I think they will be determined to do so. However if the Fever play in the fashion they did against the Magic they can cause an upset. Ama Agbeze has done really well in recent weeks and along with Susan Furhman and Andrea Gilmore will need to have a big match against the very confident and accurate Mystics shooters. At the other end Anna Scarlett who is one of the top three defenders in the competition is likely play a leading role and Caitlin Bassett will really need to stand firm and stay confident. I think it will be a tight match and the Fever do not have a good record in securing the close ones. I am very unsure and feeling perhaps a bit irrational in tipping the Fever, but this is not a recommended bet. Fever by 1.

Recommended bet: None – this is not a confident tip.

 

Monday April 11, 7:40 PM Waikato/BOP Magic v NSW Swifts

Magic: 6-2 (second on ladder), 2-1 at home

Swifts: 5-3 (fifth on ladder), 2-1 away

Bookmakers’ line*:TBC

Ms Netball says: Readers should know when it comes to the Swifts I can’t be trusted, in all three of their losses I have tipped them – in fact I have tipped them every week. Perhaps picking them again is a mistake because they have not yet shown the decisive play required against a quality line up like the Magic.  It is also worth noting that the last time these two teams met in NZ, the Magic won by a massive 18 goals. The Swifts’ centre Coutney Tairi is good in defence but needs to offer more in attack and will really need to step up against the Magic’s brilliant Laura Langman. This is an important match for the Swifts defenders and I think if Bulley, Gerrard and Mkoloma can disrupt the flow into the circle and get turnover ball they can come out on top. As a biased Swifts supporter I am again tipping them, but would not recommend a bet on the back of my selection. Swifts by 2.

Recommended bet: None – this is not a confident tip.

Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

* Once again, bookmakers had not yet published lines for these games at the time of publication of this article. We will endeavour to add these lines (and note any consequential recommended bets) as they become available via the comments section each week.