ANZ Championships – Round 6 Tips
The Magic may have broken their 2012 duck last week but both they and the Firebirds are spotting the leaders a huge start after five rounds. Speaking of huge starts, how about the early season tipping of Three Feet Radio’s own Ben Carbonaro? 11-3 against the spread after five weeks! Since you’re clearly not here to read my ramblings, let’s quickly throw it to Ben for a preview of Round 6 of the ANZ Championships.
Results for Round 5 tips
Round 5: 3 units bet, 2 winners, return of 3.70 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +23%
2012 total: 14 units bet, 11 winners, return of 20.55 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +47%
Once again this year, for the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where Ben’s opinion differs from that of bookmakers by at least 3.5 goals.
Here are Ben’s thoughts on Round 6 of the 2012 ANZ Championships:
Round 6 Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)
Sunday May 6, 12:10 PM NSW Swifts v Central Pulse
Swifts: 2-2 (sixth on ladder), 2-0 at home
Pulse: 2-3 (seventh on ladder), 0-2 away
Bookmakers’ line: TBC
Ben says: Recharged and refreshed, the Swifts won their previous two games against the Waikato/Bay of Plenty Magic and defending premiers Queensland Firebirds prior to last week's bye. While the Pulse gave the Mystics a scare before losing a close game, they will struggle to contain a Swifts team that is starting to find its straps after an indifferent start to the year caused by several new young players finding their way. Swifts by 8
Recommended bet: TBC
Sunday May 6, 2:20 PM Queensland Firebirds v Northern Mystics
Firebirds: 1-4 (eighth on ladder), 1-2 at home
Mystics: 4-1 (third on ladder), 2-0 away
Bookmakers’ line: TBC
Ben says: Queensland have had an indifferent start to their premiership defence, winning just one of their first five and the "premiership hangover" theory has already been used to describe their on court fortunes. The Mystics are currently the best New Zealand based team and will be looking to make their first trip to Australia for the season a winning one. This game should go down to the wire and I'm tipping the Firebirds by 2.
Recommended bet: TBC
Sunday April 29, 7:20 PM Waikato/BOP Magic v West Coast Fever
Magic: 1-4 (ninth on ladder), 1-1 at home
Fever: 2-3 (fifth on ladder), 1-1 away
Bookmakers’ line: TBC
Ben says: Magic finally got a win on the board against a Tactix team that was competitive for three quarters before falling away during the last. That win was the start of Magic working to regain the mantle of being the best New Zealand-based team and while the youthful Fever said will certainly be competitive after winning their previous game in New Zealand, they will be just outmatched by a side that still oozes quality. Magic by 3
Recommended bet: TBC
Monday May 7, 7:40 PM Canterbury Tactix v Melbourne Vixens
Tactix: 1-4 (tenth on ladder), 1-1 at home
Vixens: 5-0 (first on ladder), 3-0 away
Bookmakers’ line: TBC
Ben says: The Vixens are still undefeated after their second last gasp win in a row last week, but they have showed no signs of slowing down and will show their quality against a Tactix team that has struggled to string together consistent performances after winning just one game from their first five of season 2012. Vixens by 8
Recommended bet: TBC
Monday May 7, 7:40 PM Adelaide Thunderbirds v Southern Steel
Thunderbirds: 4-1 (second on ladder), 1-1 at home
Steel: 2-2 (fourth on ladder), 1-1 away
Bookmakers’ line: TBC
Ben says: Behind the Vixens, Adelaide are the next best Australian based team – they have only lost one game (in Round 3 to the Vixens) and were clinical in their win over the Fever. The Steel are coming off a bye and will be refreshed for trip across the Tasman for 2012, but the will not be able to contain a Thunderbirds team that is starting to firm as a possible late season threat to the competition leaders. Thunderbirds by 10
Recommended bet: TBC
Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
None of the bookmaker lines deviate by at least 3.5 goals from Ben's tips this week., and thus we have no recommended bets. For the record, the lines are:
Swifts -6.5
Firebirds -3.5 to -4
Magic -3.5 to -4.5
Tactix +9.5 to +10.5
Thunderbirds -10.5
Just as a matter of interest, Swifts and Vixens have both lost their captains (both important players) to injury for this week after Ben did his tips and after the prices were assessed. Don't suppose you can take that into account with your bets, but it'll be interesting to see what effect that has on those 2 teams.
Books looking at Ben's prices before putting markets up? Wouldn't be surprised.
Might be worth publishing this column after their dartboard throws.