May 5 Racing Selections

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on May 3, 2012

The magnificent Sydney Autumn carnival may now be in the rear view mirror, but the racing is starting to heat up in both Adelaide and Brisbane. Tips for this weekend cover the May 5 meetings at Flemington, Hawkesbury and the Gold Coast (featuring the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes).

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for April 28 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – Rosagaze, Excellantes (Eagle Farm meeting abandoned)

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Miss Keepsake, Drunken Sailor, Neeson, My Ex Mate

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Morphettville – Go The Knuckle ($7.50 SP) – third

April 28 results:   1 selection, no winners

2012 results:  27 selections, 27 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -67%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -65%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Nil

April 28 results:  no selections

2012 results:  8 selections, 4 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of $5.00 (POT = +25%), BOB return of $5.00 (POT = +25%)

Overall Results

April 28:  1 selection, 1 unit bet, no winners

2012:  35 selections, 31 units bet, 2 winners, SP return of $14.00 (POT = -55%), BOB return of $14.50 (POT = -53%)

 

Saturday May 5

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 4 No. 2 Testascana

  • Forgive his last start eighth over 2000 metres – much better suited dropping back to the mile (where he has three wins and a second from six attempts).
  • A winner at his only previous run over 1600 metres at Flemington.
  • Six wins and six placings from 16 races on rain-affected ground.
  • Well weighted in this race after the claim with 56.5 kilos.

Race 6 No. 12 Supremacy

  • Two nice runs to kick off this campaign – a fourth placing over 1400 metres when resuming followed by a strong third to Fawkner over 1600 metres.
  • Completed his previous preparation by crossing from New Zealand, running a close second at Flemington over 2540 metres to Shezaten and then finishing sixth (beaten only 1.5 lengths in the Listed Bagot Handicap).
  • Has two wins and a second from only four previous runs at 2000 metres.
  • Can handle wet ground – five previous starts on slow or heavy ground have led to a win and three placings.
  • Gets in three kilos under the limit (with 51 kilos) after the claim; receiving six kilos from last start winner Playwright, 5.5 kilos from Laristan and five kilos from Chasse.

 

Hawkesbury (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 6 Ladys Angel

  • In career best form – her last two starts have resulted in a third to Atlantic Jewel in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes and a third to Temple Of Boom in the Group 1 Galaxy Handicap.
  • Her best form in the past has been on wet tracks, but those two previous starts were on good and dead tracks respectively, thus it should hold up here.
  • Two wins from three previous attempts at 1300 metres.
  • Pace should be solid enough for her to run on strongly.

 

Gold Coast (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 5 No. 3 Dual Chamber

  • Charged home late in her first-up run when fourth to Risk Aversion in the Listed Juanmo Stakes at Eagle Farm.
  • Has three wins and three placings from just seven second-up runs, including a win over Skating On Ice in the second run of her previous campaign (after running fourth to Zero Rock when first-up at Eagle Farm – sound familiar?).
  • Ran second to Spirit Of Boom in the Listed Goldmarket Handicap in January at her last Gold Coast run.
  • Drawn nicely (barrier five) to get a cheap run behind a likely strong speed and rush home late.

Race 7 No. 3 Mid Summer Music

  • Her last five starts have all been at Group 1 or Group 2 level, where she has recorded three placings. The winners were Sepoy, Sister Madly, Black Caviar, Foxwedge and Atlantic Jewel. Call me crazy, but I think that form line will stand up in a Listed race.
  • Nine wins and seven placings from 20 career starts.
  • Eight wins and four placings from 14 starts on rain-affected ground.
  • Three wins and a second from four attempts at 1300 metres.
  • Barrier 15 is very awkward, but the speed does not appear strong on paper, so she should be able to cross into a position near the leaders.

 

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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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