August 6 Racing Selections
With the Spring Carnival just starting to tip in to its very beginnings with a few very handy types resuming, tips for this weekend cover the August 6 meetings at Flemington (featuring the Aurie’s Star Handicap), Randwick (featuring the Missile Stakes) and Doomben.
Results for July 30
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Caulfield – Mid Summer Music ($1.75 SP, $1.90 BOB) – Won
July 30 Results: One selection, one winner, SP return of $1.75, BOB return of $1.90
Overall Results: 67 selections, 15 winners, SP return of $54.55, SP POT = -19%, Luxbet BOB return of $64.20, BOB POT = -4%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Rosehill – Sweetest Melody ($6.50 SP, $8.10 BOB) – Won
Rosehill – Turnstiles ($7.50 SP) – unplaced
Doomben – Elusive Port ($8.00 SP) – unplaced
Morphettville – Evenmoreaction ($8.00 SP) – unplaced
July 30 Results: Four selections, one winner, SP return of $6.50, BOB return of $8.10
Overall Results: 59 selections, seven winners, SP return of $55.00, SP POT = -7%, Luxbet BOB return of $65.70, BOB POT = +11%
All tips
Overall Results: 126 selections, 22 winners, SP return of $109.55, SP POT = -13%, Luxbet BOB return of $129.90, BOB POT = +3%
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Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday August 6
Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 5 No. 6 Chosen To Fly
Essentially this tip boils down to his record over 1000 metres – five starts for four wins. This ex-Queensland entire resumes in a new stable (for Colin and Cindy Alderson) and has won two of three first-up attempts. Last preparation he won twice over this journey and once (barely) over the unsuitably long 1200-metre trip before finishing down the track three times over 1200 and 1400 metres in strong summer races. Back to restricted grade, more importantly back to his preferred trip and with only 53 kgs after the claim, I think the grey can he can give them plenty to catch.
Race 7 No. 3 They Won’t Last
I thought his last run was excellent when jumping from 1200 to 1600 metres second up, running third behind the well-performed Testascana and Carnero. The extra race fitness he derived from that run should serve him well third-up over the 1710 metres, and whilst this is an untested distance range for him, he did win twice in similar restricted grade races over 1550 metres at Morphettville last preparation, so I expect him to handle this journey without any problems.
Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 4 No. 3 Timetable
I am going to take on the likely favourite in Essence Of Success (a Gai Waterhouse-trained mare who is taking on the boys in her first go at the 2000-metre journey and after claims is equal top weight) with a proven galloper at the trip. Timetable has two wins and a second from five starts over the distance and last start ran a promising second (giving weight to the winner Hidden Gem and defeating the likes of Frozone) over 1800 metres when third-up from a spell. If there is a chink in the favourite’s armour over this journey, I think this is the galloper to find it.
Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 4 No. 1 General Purple
Yes, he hasn’t won in six races so far this preparation, but look at the list of winners of the last five races he has contested: Metallurgical, Mystical Grey, Balavan, Elusive Port and Startsmeup. It is a strong list. Now throw in these considerations: (1) he gets into a Class-6 race with only 55 kgs after the claim; (2) he has five wins and seven placings from 15 starts at the journey; (3) he is well drawn in barrier five; and (4) he meets possible favourite Solzhenitsyn a whopping 7.5 kgs for beating it home in the aforementioned race won by Balavan. All told, it makes a compelling case for backing him.
Race 8 No. 2 Falco Star
Another occasion where I’m taking on the likely favourite (Age Of Heroes, who is drawn awkwardly in barrier 12). Falco Star was excellent last start when running second to the quality mare Jerezana in the Listed Ramornie Handicap when three wide for most of the journey from a wide barrier. Today he is drawn much more advantageously in barrier four, and with three runs now under his belt this preparation race fitness should not be of concern. He’ll need a strong tempo in running to be able to finish over the top of them but with the likes of Leapforg, Fangles and The Sixties engaged here, I think he’ll get it.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
