The Mongrel Punter

Cameron Noakes

THERE are six AFL games this weekend that, according to the odds, are a foregone conclusion, and Centrebet media man Neil Evans says the expanding gulf between the weak and strong clubs has made the competition farcical.

Tonight, St Kilda ($1.11) is expected to make a mess of the purple darling of the west ($6). And tomorrow could be another black day, with top-four fancy Carlton at $1.11 against the imploding Melbourne ($6), and Geelong – evidently invincible at Skilled Stadium – at $1.01 against the Gary Ablett-less Gold Coast ($13). 

The expected onslaught will roll into tomorrow night when reigning premier Collingwood ($1.01) takes on my sweet Port ($13), with no one giving wooden spoon-bound Port a hope after coach Matthew Primus conceded last week his team was disturbingly below AFL standard.

Collingwood is $1.15 to win by more than 39.5 points and bookmakers say punters are going for the tiny profit.

The odds tell us there will be more one-sided games on Sunday, with third-placed Hawthorn at $1.11 against North Melbourne ($6), and West Coast ($1.08) at home against the free-falling Richmond ($7).

The two games that are remotely interesting for the punters are Essendon and Sydney (both $1.87) and the Lions ($1.65) and Adelaide ($2.15), but the second part of that statement is questionable.

PUNTING NOTES

In the wake of the Demons' nightmare against the Cats, Betfair has opened a market that pits Carlton (which is playing Melbourne) against Australia (which has Sri Lanka in a T20 game). At $1.62, Australia is favourite to have the higher score, while the Blues have drifted to $2.44.

North Melbourne with a start (37.5 points) is the punters' choice this weekend, with several large line bets, including one of $10,000 at $1.90 at TABSportsbet.

Sydney was backed into favouritism against Essendon, with Centrebet holding a swag of big bets on the Swans, pushing them from $2 to $1.87.

 

This article was first published in The Age