February 25 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the February 25 meetings at Caulfield (featuring the Group 1 Futurity Stakes, Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes and Group 1 Oakleigh Plate) and Rosehill (featuring the Group 2 Apollo Stakes).
Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips
Results for February 18 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – nil
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Sienna Red, Hood, Cellarmaster
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Lethal Arrow ($8.50 SP) – unplaced
Bigelow ($6.00) – second
February 18 results: 2 selections, 2 units bet, no winners
2012 results: 12 selections, 12 units bet, no winners
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Elusive Port ($10.00 SP) – unplaced
February 18 results: 1 selection, no winners
2012 results: 4 selections, 2 units bet, no winners
Overall Results
February 18: 3 selections, 2.5 units bet, no winners
2012: 16 selections, 14 units bet, no winners
Saturday February 25
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 13 Satin Shoes
Three year-old horses have a very strong record in this race and with this filly meeting Sepoy four kilos better off for being beaten 1.7 lengths in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stukes last November, I think this filly is the way to go. She is unbeaten in four goes at the trip, unbeaten in three previous first-up runs and has two wins from three goes at the track. She has trialled well leading into this and from barrier three should get plenty of favours in running. I think she is significantly over the odds here.
Race 9 No. 5 I’m Discreet
Her first-up run was a complete ‘forgive’ effort when caught in traffic behind Psychologist. She has an excellent second-up record (two wins and two placings from four attempts) and a strong record over 1400 metres (two wins and four placings from eight attempts). The critical issue to my mind though is where she can settle in the run – over the 1200 metres last start she was unable to muster enough speed to take a forward position, but with the likely easier tempo over 1400 metres this time I think she can race much closer to the lead and take some holding out.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 5 No. 5 No Evidence Needed
I’ve been a fan of this mare for a couple of years now, with her 2010 form lines intertwined quite closely with those of multiple Group 1 winner Response. Her last preparation was all conducted in Sydney and Brisbane and included defeats behind More Joyous at Group 2 level, Aloha at Group 1 level and Black Caviar/ Hay List in the Group 1 BTC Cup. While she has been off the scene since May 2011 she does come into this with two trials (including one win) under her belt. But the big factor in her favour is that with so many ‘milers’ resuming here, she is one of the few with the tactical speed to be well suited over 1200 metres.
Race 7 No. 6 Balmont
This mare really took a leap forward last preparation, winning the Listed Nivison first-up from a spell and then running second to subsequent Group 1 winner Ortensia when second-up in the Listed H.G. Mumm Stakes at Flemington on VRC Oaks day. I’m willing to take that progression at face value, which makes her very well weighted here on the 55 kilo limit. She handles rain-affected tracks well (four wins and three placings from 12 starts), runs well fresh (two wins and a second placing from five first-up runs) and is something of a 1200-metre specialist, with four wins and a placing from seven goes at the trip. The speed in the race should be strong, so look for her to be swooping late.
Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.
Luxbet is offering a free $100 bet (literally a bet to nothing) if you sign up to their website either via one of the numerous banners or text links around this site. Just sign up and win (or not lose, as the case may be) on your free bet! Such patronage will also help this site to grow in stature over time.
Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.
Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
