January 21 Selections

Tips for this weekend cover the January 21 meetings at Flemington and Eagle Farm. Just a word to the wise right now – if you don’t like backing horses with apprentices claiming 3 kilos, the list for this week (below) will only offer you slim pickings.

 

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for January 14 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Odds too short – Cabernet, Big Slick

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Platamone Castle ($8.50 SP) – third

Sikka ($9.00) – unplaced (tragically suffered a heart attack and died)

January 14 results: 2 selections, 2 units bet, no winners

2012 overall results: 4 selections, 4 units bet, no winners

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Mr Make Believe ($15.00 SP) – unplaced

January 14 results: 1 selections, 0.5 units bet, no winners

2012 overall results: 1 selections, 0.5 units bet, no winners

Overall Results

January 14: 3 selections, 2.5 units bet, no winners

2012: 5 selections, 4.5 units bet, no winners

 

Saturday January 21

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 10 Stardom

She drops back in class to RB82 level after two luckless runs at RB89 level at Caulfield, from which the form lines through the likes of There’s Only One, Princess Narine, Miss Matari and Fabulist should see her in good stead. Despite having never won beyond 1200 metres it is worth noting that she has had 3 seconds from as many attempts over the 1400 metre journey and also placed over 1600 metres back in July of last year. With those strong form lines behind her and a 3 kilo weight advantage over the likely favourite Golden Penny, I think she can break through here.

Race 5 No. 4 Lethal Arrow

This Peter Moody-trained galloper resumed in nice order when seventh (beaten only 1.7 lengths) behind Let’s Be Happy. Importantly, he finished only just behind At The Heads, who subsequently defeated Pied A Terre in the Listed Edward Manifold Stakes last Saturday. Moreover, his form last preparation was excellent, with 5 wins, 4 placings and 1 disqualification from 10 runs. With 55 kilos after the claim and nicely drawn In barrier 5, he should be able to stalk the likely leader Cannonball and make the favourites run him down. I don’t think they will. 

Race 6 No. 3 Canali

This Darwin-trained galloper has really stepped up to the mark in this Melbourne campaign – a photo finish second at Listed level (at this track/ trip) was followed by a complete ‘forgive’ run at Moonee Valley, a win over Catapulted at Caulfield and a 4^thto that same galloper in the Group 3 Standish Handicap. The 1000 metres is his pet distance (5 wins and 3 placings from just 11 attempts) and he meets a few of his recent opponents pretty well at the weights this time around. An excellent chance.

 

Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 6 No. 6 Usain Prince

Sue Grills has a habit of knowing when to bring her promising provincial gallopers to town (most notably Border Rebel) and with a 4 race winning streak on the line, I think this five year-old gelding is up to the task. He gets in 2 kilos under the limit after the claim, has been running excellent times (breaking 1:09 for 1200 metres 3 starts back and then breaking 1:22 at both subsequent runs over 1400 metres) and importantly, can roll forward in a race which appears to have limited speed. He’ll take some catching. 

Race 7 No. 1 Ollie Vollie

Yes, he’s a 9 year-old now and yes, he hasn’t won in 12 months. Hear me out on this one. His last 2 starts have yielded a 4^thto Listen Son in the Listed Keith Noud Handicap at this track/ distance (where he finished alongside the likes of Ready to Rip and Spirit of Boom) and a 4^thto News Alert in the Listed Razor Sharp at Warwick Farm over this trip (proven Group-level gallopers in Rarefied ran and Catapulted ran 2^ndand 5^threspectively). Now he goes back to a standard Saturday Brisbane sprint and only carries 56 kilos after the claim. I think that’s enough to offset his age and losing streak.

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet is offering a free $100 bet (literally a bet to nothing) if you sign up to their website via the banner on the lower right sidebar of this page (just under Nick's Twitter feed). Just sign up and win (or not lose, as the case may be) on your free bet! Such patronage will alsohelp this site to grow in stature over time.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo