July 7 Racing Selections
Finally…… winner, winner, chicken dinner! Hotham Heights breaks the extended run of outs as we reach the halfway mark of the year. Assuming the same number of bets in the second half of the year, around 9-10 winners from 43 bets (to get a 70-unit return) in the $6-9.50 SP range and one $14 winner from 12 bets at $10 SP or greater is the equation to recover to parity on the year. That is now the target. With that in mind, tips this week will cover the July 7 meetings at w, x, y and z.
Results for June 30 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – nil
Track outside prescribed range – Youbolt
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Ebony Rock
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Caulfield – Hotham Heights ($6.50 SP, $7.00 BOB) – second
Rosehill – Ideal Position ($6.00) – third
June 30 results: 2 selections, 1 winner, 1 third, SP return of 6.50 units, BOB return of 7.00 units
2012 results: 43 selections, 43 units bet, 2 winners, 17 seconds/ thirds, SP return of 15.50 units (POT = -64%), BOB return of 16.50 units (POT = -62%)
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Nil
June 30 results: No selections, no winners
2012 results: 12 selections, 6 units bet, 1 winner, 1 third, SP return of 5.00 units (POT = -17%), BOB return of 5.00 units (POT = -17%)
Overall Results
June 30: 2 selections, 1 winner, 1 third, SP return of 6.50 units, BOB return of 7.00 units
2012: 55 selections, 49 units bet, 3 winners, 18 seconds/ thirds, SP return of 20.50 units (POT = -58%), BOB return of 21.50 units (POT = -56%)
Saturday July 7
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 2 No. 8 New York
His last start effort (when second to potential Winter Championship Final favourite Menados) was full of merit.
Untested at 1800 metres to date, but two strong runs at 1600 suggest he'll run it right out.
Gets in with only 52 kilos (two under the limit) after the claim.
Race 6 No. 13 Future Solution
Sticking with him after a strong second to There's Only One last start, where the favourite got the gun run on the inside. Also meets that mare 3.5 kilos better off this time around.
Has two wins and a second from six starts at the mile.
Has two wins and six placings from eight runs on slow tracks.
Drawn awkwardly, but is only one barrier outside There's Only One, so should be able to stalk her in running and be right in the finish.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 6 No. 3 Prince Monashee
Was surprised to see him resume in the Listed Takeover Target Quality at Gosfrd, but after hitting the lead early in the straight he fought on well to only be beaten 2.2 lengths.
Drops substantially in grade to a BM 80 race here.
Last preparation he won a BM80 race with 55.5 kilos and placed in another with 57 kilos – he will carry only 54.5 kilos after the claim here.
Will go forward from a handy barrier draw (five) in a race where the speed does not appear to be strong.
Race 8 No. 9 Sutton Queen
She has seven wins and 11 placings from just 22 career starts, including a pair of recent close-up third placings at Listed level.
Meets See The World 3.5 kilos better for being beaten only 0.4 lengths in the Takeover Target Quality.
Has three wins and two placings from five runs over 1100 metres.
In a race where the speed should be red hot, she is one of only a handful of 'get back, run on' horses engaged.
Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 1 No. 10 War Charm
Ran fifth in a pair of Listed races during the Sydney autumn, yet resumes in a Class-6 race up north.
Has two wins and a second from four runs over this distance.
Drawn the inside alley, and gets in with only 54 kilos after the claim.
Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.
Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.
Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
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