March 25 and 26 Racing Selections

Racing tips this week will cover the March 25 night meeting at Moonee Valley and the March 26 meetings at Caulfield, Rosehill and Morphetville.

Results for March 19

Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)

Scratched – Simply Put (Caulfield)

Track rating outside prescribed range – Palacio De Cristal and Miss Keepsake (both Rosehill, courtesy of the consistent rain that hit the track throughout the meeting)

Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less

Caulfield – Returntosender ($4.40 SP) – Won

Caulfield – The Big Steel ($4.80) – third

March 19 Results: Two selections, one winner, SP return of $4.40

Overall Results: 25 selections, seven winners, SP return of $27.80, profit on turnover (POT) = 11%

Tips where the SP was $6 or greater

March 19 Results: No selections

Overall Results: 15 selections, two winners, SP return of $17.00, profit on turnover (POT) = 13%

All tips

Overall Results: 40 selections, nine winners, SP return of $44.80, profit on turnover (POT) = 12%

Rules

(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.

(2) Results are based on a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP), and will be split into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).

Here are the selections for this Friday evening and Saturday:

Friday March 25

Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 1 Lady Lynette

She over-raced last start when fifth behind Pinker Pinker and has since returned to the stables of Robert Smerdon. The set weights nature of this race sees her far better placed than would be the case in a handicap. Her overall records stands at 12 wins and 11 placings from 35 starts, but if you subtract her first and second up runs it improves to eight wins and eight placings from 21 starts. She has recorded three wins and three placings from seven starts at the 1600 metre trip, as well as two wins and two placings from five starts at Moonee Valley and from barrier one should be able to race handy (always a helpful trait at the Valley) prove hard to hold out at the finish.

Saturday March 26

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 5 Carrara

His results in his last preparation don’t make for flattering reading, but I’m prepared to forgive this.  Three key factors see him better placed this time around. Firstly, he drops in class from those fields to the one he’ll face on Saturday. Secondly, his first-up record includes two wins and a second to Denman in just four starts. Finally, blinkers are being applied for the first time, which should sharpen him up for this 1200 metre sprint. I think these three things will see his form drastically improve come Saturday.

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 6 No. 13 Galizani

Trainer John Thompson thought enough of her ability to enter her in the Group 3 Queens Cup (on Emirates Stakes Day) last spring at just her fifth start and her first race campaign. Whilst she finished down the track behind Moudre that day, she does look to have come back in good order, with a last start fourth behind Warpath at Listed level suggesting a strong campaign is in the offing. She has two wins and two placings in seven starts to date and being by Galileo out of a Zabeel mare, should only improve with further maturity and over longer distances. I think she can win this race on the road to bigger and better things.

Race 8 No. 9 Tabulate

This might seem like a left field tip at first, but hear me out. He has one win from two starts on slow tracks and two wins from two starts on heavy tracks, so unlike many in this field he can clearly handle rain-affected tracks. His last start over 2400 metres was in the Group 2 Brisbane Cup where he drew barrier 18, had to be snagged back to the tail of the field and eventually weaved his way through tiring horses to finish seventh, three lengths behind the winner. With his preferred (wet) conditions in play and a better run in transit, I smell a boilover.

Race 9 No. 8 Zingaling

Another case of looking for a horse with wet track credentials, although over a 1200 metre scamper that is likely to be run at a strong tempo, I’d like to add a decent barrier and a ‘run on’ style of racing to the key criteria here. Zingaling has two wins (including one at Listed level) and four placings from seven starts at the journey, as well as two wins and three placings from five starts on slow or heavy tracks. Two starts back she was beaten by Ofcourseican by just 0.2 lengths and meets that mare 3.5 kgs better off at the weights today.

Morphetville (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 7 No. 2 Beaded

Two of my favourite mares in Beaded and Response go around here, but I’m leaning towards the former. She has raced 18 times for nine wins and eight placings including a last start third in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap behind Black Caviar). The set weights nature of the race suits, she loves 1200 metres, can handle wet or dry conditions and can race handy to the speed or settle further back if more suitable. Such an honest, top shelf mare deserves a Group 1 victory on her CV.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo