The Eve of Destruction: The 2011 NSW Election

Come Saturday afternoon, the New South Wales Labor Party will, in any real sense, cease to exist. Killed by their own arrogance, incompetence, corruption and stupidity, the good folk of New South Wales will bestow the greatest electoral carnage on a single party ever seen in Australia.

Labor may never recover.

In a manner so very rugby league, so very New South Wales, voters will rip the throat out of the ALP before inserting it sideways into Kristina Keneally’s backside at a rather forceful speed. The glory days are long gone, the high watermark nothing but a fading memory. The halcyon days of Bob Carr stomping all over the likes of Peter Collins, Kerry Chikarovski, John Brogden and Peter Debnam are long gone.

The gutting is made to seem even more monumental when the natural leanings of the state are shown to be clearly Labor. Since 1941, New South Wales has had only 18 years if Liberal rule and in only two separate stints. Labor, meanwhile, have held the reins of power for 52 years.

The levels of the brutality about to be hammered on the Keneally Government are so great that it is difficult to conceptualise the historic nature of the beating. Polls have Labor recording a primary vote of something in the vicinity of 22%, a number less than double what the Greens could poll. The two-party preferred has the Coalition winning 66-34 in most surveys. Labor are actually taking solace that some polls have the score 64-36.

Seats where the margin is less than 10% in favour of Labor are considered, for the most part, gone. Any Liberal held seat is considered safe. Seats with a margin in excess of 22% Labor’s way are thought to be in real danger of being lost.

For Labor sympathisers in New South Wales, Barrie Unsworth’s loss at the 1988 election was thought to be as bad as it gets. Sure, there had been Jack Lang in the 30s but that was a different time, a tougher and less stable time. When Unsworth went down in ’88, it was after 12 years of Labor rule. Corruption was prevalent. The party’s position on guns and conservation had alienated many rural voters.

The result was a swing of 8.4% against the ALP, the loss of 15 seats, the giving up of heartland territories likes Balmain and Newcastle for the first time in a century.

Labor would sell their souls and probably Kristina Keneally’s ass for those numbers.

Annihilation awaits.

When Labor sought to rebuild after ’88, they had a base of 43 seats to work from. They picked up three in ’91 and were back in power by ’95.

This time around, Labor are looking at a swing that could quite easily top 16% and a total seat count of- and this is quite a realistic possibility- 14 seats. This election may lay the groundwork for 16 years of Coalition rule.

And why not? Barry O’Farrell loves his league. That should be enough.

I’m not sure Labor will go as low as 14 though. I sure as hell hope they do. I love an electoral molestation and I am not weak-stomached when it comes to such devastation. I just have to believe that there is at least one semi-intelligent fool in the Labor Party who has come up with the idea to sandbag a few seats and show some consideration for the future.

So my prediction is this: Coalition 69, ALP 16, Independent/Green 8.

Labor will lose all but one legitimately rural seat. They will be destroyed in the traditional heartlands of Newcastle and the Illawarra, quite possibly holding only two or three seats combined. They are going to be wiped out in southern Sydney. It will be the same tale out west. Up north, the game is already over.

There'll be no one to save with the world in a grave,take a look around you, boy, it's bound to scare you.

And you tell me over and over and over again my friend, ah, you don't believe we're on the eve of destruction.

Ten Seats to Watch

10. Newcastle

Labor are facing ruin in the Hunter, as they are in the Illawarra and Sydney. Newcastle, held by Labor for 81 of the last 84 years, is set to fall to independent John Tate, who came so close in 2007. The only time Newcastle has left Labor hands was in 1988, the Unsworth collapse. Historical precedent says it is going this time as well. The Coalition are heavily favoured in Port Stephens and Maitland, betting is split in Charlestown while Swansea and Wallsend are up for grabs. 

9. Toongabbie

Former Premier Nathan Rees has enough public sympathy after his attempts to tackle Labor’s factional warlords when the boss to actually hold Toongabbie as the Labor wave recedes. Toongabbie is the only Sydney seat with a margin of less than 16.1% where Labor are favoured. Rees should have enough personal support to win but this seat will be close.

8. Blacktown

To the dismay of Labor, Blacktown is in play even with a margin of 22.4%. The old seat of Paul Gibson, Labor smear-mongerer and heavyweight faction boss, was to be used to shuffle in upper house member and the man seen as the post-annihilation leader, John Robertson, to the lower house. He faces a stiff test though with early noises suggesting Labor was in real trouble. They will probably hold on but it is going to be close in what is a sign of how bad Labor are set to roll.

7. Port Macquarie

Independent MP Peter Besseling is set to be the first to cop the backlash from Rob Oakeshott’s and Tony Windsor’s incredible decision to support a Gillard Labor government. Port Macquarie is Oakeshott’s old state seat and the vengeance is expected to be swift and violent. Port Macquarie should be one of a number of rural northern seats that reverts back to the National Party as voters, betrayed, turn their back on once-popular independents.

6. Marrickville

Well-known Labor minister Carmel Tebbutt, once touted as a future Labor premier, is on the verge of losing a seat that has been in ALP hands since 1910, where it has had only five members. There has been talk that Tebbutt may save Marrickville but it seems highly unlikely with popular sentiment certainly with the Greens and their well-known local mayor Fiona Byrne. This looks like a structural realignment and a seat Labor may struggle to win back again.

5. Wollongong

Nominally Labor’s eighth safest seat with a 25.3% margin, Noreen Hay looks set to complete the astonishing and lose. Local polling has Hay slightly behind independent candidate, Reverend Gordon Bradbery. Bradbery is, remarkably, favourite with the TAB (and rightly so). Bradbery will benefit from Greens preferences while Hay is hardly a strong candidate: a typical ex-union hack who never rose to any great heights and has been beset by scandal, all in the true Wollongong mould. I think Bradbery wins here in what would be one of Australia’s most extraordinary general election results.

4. Monaro

The one saving grace for Labor and the one seat under 12% that they actually stand a chance in. Disconnected from the infrastructure woes that have beset Labor in Sydney, being more connected to Canberra than Sydney, and with a hard-working and popular local member in Steve Whan, this could be Labor’s only rural win. Sportsbet are betting $2.10 about Whan. Fill your boots, though Sportsbet aren’t known for showing much bottle for taking a bet. I think this is the one light that shines for Labor.

3. Kogarah

Held by Labor since 1951, the Coalition are threes-on to win the seat with another minister, Cherie Burton, set to be rolled. In St George, you believe in two things: the Dragons and the Labor Party. Such is the devastation wreaked by this Labor Government, the district is set to turn its back on Labor.

2. Balmain

A Labor heartland in inner-city Sydney, minister Verity Firth is now $8 third favourite to retain the seat in what is endemic of how Labor has disenfranchised the faithful. Firth has been caught up in the Labor shit-storm, her husband being nabbed with an eccy earlier in the year. Balmain should go Green but Labor’s vote could get so low that the Coalition could claim the seat for the first time since it reverted to being a single-member electorate in 1927.

1. Keira

This is one for the rugby league faithful with John Dorahy, affectionately known as Joe Cool, the former Magpie, Eagle, Steeler and Bear contesting the seat for the Liberal Party. Less than a month ago, $5 was bet about Joe Cool overcoming the 22% ALP margin and a an all-Labor history that dates back through the seat’s formation and its predecessor Corrimal. The Illawarra could be the worst result of anywhere for Labor and if Keira goes to the Liberal Party, the rout is as bad as first feared.

Recommended Bets

Balmain: Any Other $1.60 (Sports)

Bathurst: Nationals $1.18 (Sports)

Camden: Liberal $1.06 (Sports)

Charlestown: Liberal $1.40 (Sports)

Coogee: Liberal $1.15 (Sports)

Dubbo: Nationals $1.16 (Sports)

East Hills: Liberal $1.33 (Sports)

Gosford: Liberal $1.06 (Sports)

Goulburn: Liberal $1.10 (Sports)

Heathcote: Liberal $1.07 (Sports)

Hornsby: Liberal $1.07 (Sports)

Keira: Liberal $1.80 (Sports)

Kiama: Liberal $1.07 (Sports)

Londonderry: Liberal $1.05 (Sports)

Maitland: Liberal $1.20 (Sporting)

Manly: Liberal $1.03 (Sports)

Marrickville: Any Other $1.32 (Sporting)

Menai: Liberal $1.06 (Sports)

Monaro: ALP $2.10 (Sports)

Newcastle: Any Other $1.52 (Sports)

Oatley: Liberal $1.30 (TAB)

Parramatta: Liberal $1.35 (Sports)

Penrith: Liberal $1.05 (Sports)

Port Stephens: Liberal $1.03 (Sports)

Riverstone: Liberal $1.12 (Sports)

Sydney: Any Other $1.20 (Sports)

The Entrance: Liberal $1.09 (Sports)

Toongabbie: ALP $1.53 (Sports)

Tweed: Liberal $1.10 (Sports)

Wollondilly: Liberal $1.05 (Sports)

Wollongong: Any Other $2.10 (Sports)

Photo by Craig Golding/Getty Images AsiaPac