March 31 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the March 31 meetings at Moonee Valley, Rosehill (featuring the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas) and Eagle Farm.
Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips
Results for March 23 and 24 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – nil
Track outside prescribed range – nil
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Love Conquers All, King’s Rose, I’m Discreet
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Lady Lynette ($6.00 SP) – first past the post…. but second after a trip to the steward’s room
Zedi Knight ($8.50) – unplaced
March 23/24 results: 2 selections, no winners
2012 results: 18 selections, 18 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -50%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -47%)
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Nil
March 23/24 results: No selections
2012 results: 5 selections, 2.5 units bet, no winners
Overall Results
March 23/24: 2 selections, 2 unit bet, no winners
2012: 23 selections, 20.5 units bet, one winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -56%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -54%)
Saturday March 31
Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 2 No. 3 Neriani
Her career to date has been impressive – three wins and five placings from just the nine starts. Her only unplaced run was a seventh at Group 3 level, which is still strong form for a Mares RB89 race. She has won both of her previous first-up runs, has a win and a second from two attempts over 1200 metres and last preparation was only narrowly beaten by quality mare Hi Belle at Listed level when both carried 54 kilos. With one kilo less than the limit after the claim here, I think her class can prevail.
Race 7 No. 5 Over Quota
He and Snow Cover both ran respectable races in the Group 2 Blamey Stakes and will benefit from a significant drop in class back to this race. Snow Cover was perhaps the more impressive of the Blamey runs but at Moonee Valley I always lean a little towards horses who can race handy to the speed, and from barrier one Over Quota can certainly do this. His four runs prior to the Blamey resulted in three wins over the 1600 metres (including the Listed Kilmore Cup) and a third placing when lugging 60 kilos behind Under The Hat (who carried 54), so he is in career-best form at present. No need to jump off him just yet.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 10 Foxstar
Her last start effort in Group 1 company when beaten less than four lengths in the Coolmore Classic is excellent form for a race such as this, as is her second placing to Steps In Time at the start previous to that. She’s now fourth up from a spell and with a win on Melbourne Cup day over 1700 metres last year, the step up to 1900 this time around is unlikely to pose any problems.
Race 6 No. 7 Fast Clip
With a number of the fancied runners in this race drawing wide (always an awkward proposition from the 1500-metre starting point at Rosehill), I’m leaning towards an on-pace runner drawn more favourably. He has a win and two seconds from three starts at the trip (including a second at Group 2 level over the 1500 at Rosehill last spring), as well as a win and a second from three races when second up. With Damien Oliver up, I think he will take some beating.
Race 9 No. 10 Phenomenal Lass
The form lines around this mare, Gybe and Celts are all quite intertwined. Indeed, Gybe and Celts have both narrowly beaten Phenomenal Lass in the past seven months. However, the Joe Pride-trained mare gets the best of the barrier draw this time around and I think that will be pivotal to the result. She often takes a couple of runs to reach peak race fitness so should be ready to roll here third up from a spell, while a drying track is also to her advantage. She’s already a three-time winner at Rosehill and twice a winner at the trip – there’s every chance she can add to both tallies on Saturday.
Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 7 No. 2 Gundy Son
As with Neriani, here’s another case where I think a class edge will be the determining factor. Forgive his last start flop on an unsuitable heavy track at the Gold Coast and you have some excellent form lines for a $50,000 open handicap, including a win in the Listed Chief De Beers Handicap and a second in the Listed Eye Liner Stakes. He has two wins and two placing from six attempts second up, four wins at Eagle Farm and a win and a second from three runs over the 100 metres. Look for him to be swooping late.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
