May 19 Racing Selections

Another week…… another couple of placings….. no winners. I feel like a fielding captain who keeps shuffling their slips cordon, only to see the next edge safely disappear through a gap that only moments earlier had a fielder patrolling it. When you bet win only, five placings from your last seven one-unit bets (and six placings from the last 10) isn’t exactly heartening. The only saving grace is that surely the drought has to end soon, right? In any event, tips for this weekend cover the May 19 meetings at Flemington, Scone, Doomben (featuring the Group 1 Doomben Cup) and Morphettville.

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for May 12 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Linton (despite being $6 in Saturday morning markets – dammit all), Power Princess

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Caulfield – There’s Only One ($8.00 SP) – second

Doomben – Beaded ($6.50) – third

May 5 results:   2 selections, no winners

2012 results:  30 selections, 30 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of 9.00 units (POT = -70%), BOB return of 9.50 units (POT = -68%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Caulfield – La Remas ($13.00 SP) – unplaced

Rosehill – Lioncub ($17.00) – unplaced

May 12 results:  2 selections, no winners

2012 results:  10 selections, 5 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of 5.00 units (POT = +0%), BOB return of 5.00 units (POT = +0%)

Overall Results

May 12:  4 selections, 3 units bet, no winners

2012:  40 selections, 35 units bet, 2 winners, SP return of 14.00 units (POT = -60%), BOB return of 14.50 units (POT = -59%)

 

Saturday May 19

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 4 No. 9 Module

• Forgive his last start eighth in the Warrnambool Cup when he had no luck on a heavy track.
• Has a four kilo turnaround on Playwright and a 5.5 kilo turnaround on Chasse for finishing a close third behind those runners two starts ago.
• Has two wins and three placings from six previous runs at Flemington, as well as two wins and a placing from five previous runs at the trip.
• Drawn to get an easy run from barrier three.

Race 7 No. 4 Freereturn

• Another who has to be forgiven his last start effort when ninth on an unsuitably wet track in the Wangoom Handicap.
• Has six wins and four placings from 12 starts on tracks rated dead or better.
• Has won five times and run second once in eight runs when third up or further into a campaign.
• Meets Utah Saints 2.5 kilos better for running third to him at Caulfield two starts back (when second-up from a spell).
• Drawn nicely in barrier four to race handy to the speed – often an advantage over the 1400 metres at Flemington.

 

Scone (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 1 Liesele

• Her form lines through Group winner Zero Rock, Tomboy and Miss Imagica are fantastic for a BM75 race.
• Doesn’t win out of turn, but her record on good and dead tracks is quite sound (three wins and seven seconds from 14 starts).
• Also tends to perform best early in her campaiagns (she’s second-up here), with three wins and five placings from 11 starts when first or second-up.
• Gets in very nicely at the weights with only 56 kilos after the claim.
• From barrier five she should be able to slot in around midfield and if she can find clear running in the straight, prove very hard to hold out.

 

Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 2 Ginga Dude  

• The WFA conditions of this race see him in very well at the weights compared to what he might receive in a handicap.
• Has six wins and two placings from 13 previous runs over a mile, including a last start win over Triple Honour and Scenic Shot (both running in the Group 1 Doomben Cup today) at Eagle Farm.
• Outside of he and the out-of-form Gathering, the pace in the race looks moderate at best, so the top two may be able to dictate terms out in front.

 

Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 1 Stirling Grove

• Flew home late when fourth in the Group 3 D.C. McKay Stakes (from barrier 11) when resuming, before running third to the wonder mare Black Caviar second-up in the Group 1 Goodwood Stakes.
• Last preparation he was very unlucky to finish three lengths away from Woorim in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate when drawn wide and unable to find clear running in the straight.
• Barrier six should allow Chad Lever more options for where to position him in the run than he was afforded in both the McKay Stakes and Oakleigh Plate.
• The pace in the race from the likes of Periduki, Bundle O’ Gold, Counter Sign and Kulgrinda looks very strong, so this race should set up nicely for the run-on types such as him.

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet is offering a free $100 bet (literally a bet to nothing) if you sign up to their website either via one of the numerous banners or text links around this site. Just sign up and win (or not lose, as the case may be) on your free bet! Such patronage will also help this site to grow in stature over time.

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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo