May 21 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the May 21 meetings at Flemington, Rosehill and Doomben, where we take a breath in between appearances at the carnival by the great Black Caviar and enjoy the Group 1 Doomben Cup.
Results for May 14
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Caulfield – Elumino (track outside prescribed range)
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Scone – Palacio De Cristal ($4.80 SP) – unplaced
Scone – Tromso ($5.00) – unplaced
May 14 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 47 selections, eleven winners, SP return of $41.80, profit on turnover (POT) = -11%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Doomben – Deer Valley ($6.00 SP) – unplaced
Doomben – Femina Fashion ($11.00) – unplaced
May 14 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 34 selections, five winners, SP return of $42.00, profit on turnover (POT) = 24%
All tips
Overall Results: 81 selections, 16 winners, SP return of $83.80, profit on turnover (POT) = 3%
Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Here are the selections for this Saturday:
Saturday May 21
Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 7 At The Heads
He finally gets a little relief at the weights – after carrying 58.5 kgs at his past two starts (including a second placing behind Wookah last time around), he drops to 53 kgs for this encounter. With four wins and five placings from 13 starts overall and two wins and a second from four runs over the 1400-metre journey, his credentials are sound. From barrier three he should be able to stalk the leading trio (Jungle Ruler, I’m Discreet and Euphoric Realm) and prove hard to hold out at the end.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 9 Tullamore
To my mind, the significant rise in class he faces from a win in a BM 75 race at Scone last Saturday is offset by a 7 kg drop in weight. His eight runs since coming to Australia have resulted in a three wins, four seconds and a fourth placing when first-up. This tough stayer should be setting the pace along with Voice Commander and prove very hard to run down.
Race 7 No. 9 Tallow
Is it just me, or does she seem thrown in here with only 53 kgs in a BM 89 race? She had legitimate excuses for her two unplaced runs in her summer campaign. Prior to that, she had raced eight times for three wins and four placings, including a win at Group 3 level and a second placing to Graceful Anna in the Magic Millions 3YO Classic. Don’t be surprised if she simply proves to be too good for these.
Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 2 No. 1 Our Lukas
Forgive his run two weeks ago in the Hollindale, where he was tardy away, bustled up to take the front and simply went too hard before tiring in the straight. A drop in class sees him well suited and the WFA conditions of this race and the likely lesser speed should see him have an easier run in transit. His record over the Doomben mile stands at three wins and three placings from nine starts and prior to his unplaced Hollindale run, he ran second to Scenic Shot over this distance at Eagle Farm, which should prove to be an excellent form line.
Race 6 No. 10 Listen Son
At first glance his eighth placing (beaten just over two lengths) in the PM’s Cup at the Gold Coast seems unimpressive, but in reality it was tremendous run given that he was posted three wide on a breakneck speed the whole way and the other leaders finished much further down the track. He has five wins and two placings from 11 starts at the trip and has drawn barrier four this time around. A better draw, an easier run on a (likely) slower speed, some additional race fitness – yes!
Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
