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Well a great time of year is here – State of Origin, the very best form of rugby league!
TLP SOOI Summary
Ratings wise the Maroons have the edge in the obvious areas of the spine and forward pack, with the Blues predictably being a better rated backline. The Maroons interchange is excellent. Origin is won in the middle-third and the key is minutes from the big men and the front row rotation, Queensland has a distinct advantage here.
Ponder this, Scott and Civonceiva bust themselves to a stand-still; Big Mal then rotates them as expected with Hannant and Lillyman (both in great form and playing monster minutes for their club sides). Meanwhile, Harrison is playing tight and like a 3rd front-rower, with Thaiday and Myles having the ability and the motors to push up into the tight or loose head roles if required. Realistically, the Queenslanders forward strategy is simple – own the middle-third through big metres, numbers in tackles and literally grind the opposition down. The risk is lack of mobility when they tire, remember over the last few years when Queensland have skipped away the Blues have got a couple back later in the game, but the game was already won. Contrast this with the Blues, a clear motif of fast and the furious – bust them, ruffle them, niggle them! But when the game gets into the grind what will happen – Snowden will need to play close to 60 minutes, maybe even close to 40 minutes straight. King is grossly underdone for the first game of a SOO series; he is clouded with injuries and has just not had enough game time. Therefore, young guns Mannah (in his 2nd match) and Merrin (on debut) need to cover for King and lumped with a truck-load of responsibility (Weyman should have been picked). The biggest issue is the back-row, they will lose any creativity they have in Gallen as he will need to play a Harrison type game, he will play 80 minutes, play very tight and will probably not be sighted on the fringes. Enter Bird and Scott – low rating back-rowers at best, and valued by their coaches for the attitude and mongrel they bring. Queensland are the most professional football side in the world, niggle from a couple of loose wheels will not un-settle this side (maybe punching the lights out of Lockyer is a better idea!). Take into account they will struggle in size and power to contain Scott, Thaiday, Civonceiva, Hannant and co for the entire 80 minutes. Don’t think for a minute the only reason Queensland is so dominant is the sublime spine they boast, Queensland have been winning Origins because they know how – own the middle of the park, make very tackle hurt and strive for every centimetre! Ball playing back-rowers – when and who was Queensland’s last ball-playing back-rower? They pick hardened men that play straight up and down, with no frills. Now enter Cameron Smith.
Cameron Smith is the best hooker to ever play rugby league and will win more premierships, play in more winning Origin and Test football teams than any other before or probably after him. Smith rolls on every single play, QLD have a play called get on board where they all just hover around the ruck and play touch footy – this play came into Queensland’s play-book over 5 years ago, now Smith literally does it every ruck for Queensland – it is the norm. Ennis will have his work cut out but will be the Blues best player tomorrow night – he will defend his heart out and be busy around the ruck with Bird and Gallen feeding off him, but the front-row rotation will make it nigh on impossible to get his side winning the battle of the ruck.
So with the forward packs following their allocated model and tactic, what does it mean for the backs? Queensland in Thurston and Lockyer will kick to space all day, but for the first time in a long time they are up against a real full-back with exceptional positional play (not playing Hayne at 1 is the right decision). Morris has been average this year, and Uate will be a go to man – what NSW do not need is Uate bringing it out from his own 20m all night and taking dummy half runs; they need him on the end of Gasnier. Gasnier will be great to watch, he will go outside 3 times, to set up the right foot step and put Uate away – I hope he does it at least once, he is nearly back to his best and a joy to watch in centre play. Jennings is an unknown, what he does on the night will not be a surprise – if he is dead quiet then not different to what he is doing for Penrith and if he is brilliant then he is playing to his ability. Back to Dugan, what a talent! Pearce and Soward need to get him into the game; he is a genuine game breaker and try-scorer. Dugan is currently playing for a side with no real play-makers yet is still the most influential player in most games he plays, Pearce needs to release Soward as often as possible allowing him to go at the likes of Thaiday, Myles, Lockyer and Thurston with speed then find Dugan running at an inside shoulder – he will break tackles. Soward is the key for Dugan and the success of NSW, never have the Blues had a kicker like Soward in the last 5 years. He can keep this game tight if he gets it right…enter Slater! Soward is taking on the very best positional full-back in the game and will be a game in itself – Soward does kick long, but will need to kick flat. Slater is just so quick to get to the footy on the full or first bounce, which means the set of six for Queensland has started in a flurry – Yow Yeh and Boyd jump out of dummy half after that, then Thaiday, Myles, Scott or Hannant are ripping into hit up number 3 – relentless. It is hard to see the impact of Young making a difference, versus Cooper Cronk – Cronk is in the Top 5 players in the game, he is clearly the second best 7 in the game. Cronk will only add spark to a game where Young will add grunt. The grunt part of the game has been won and run by the time he will come on. Saying that it will not surprise to see Dean Young start, it just makes more sense!
A couple more factors to review – Dane Neilson and Willie Tonga – yes, they are replacing world class players and up against quality centres in Jennings and the brilliant Gasnier. But, they will not need to win the game for QLD – Inglis or Hodges never had to. Defensively we have more concerns with Tonga than Neilson. Tonga is playing lost at the Cowboys on the left edge and was given a bath only 2 weeks ago by Hayne and Reddy – Sticky would not have missed that and Soward will try and get Gasnier on the outside of him all day. Neilson will be sweet, he is unassuming but he is a Queensland kid about to do what every Queensland kid wants to do when they are old enough to say Alfie, The King or QUEENSLANDER! He will do his job for his mates and state, that’s just what QLD do!
Thurston is the ultimate rugby league player – unbelievable decision making capability under pressure, fatigue or duress. He is motivational, in terms of on-field talking and leadership. He is comforting that he is there and if the side needs a play – he will deliver 99 times out of 100. JT is fearless, in which he will hunt down every kick and put his body where people will not put their feet. Finally, he is mature! Thurston is on the cusp of the best years in his career, a tipping point whereas he will become the best we have ever seen – scary for all opposition teams! Thurston’s improvement this year has been phenomenal; NSW should lynch Gus Gould for giving him the pep talk Thurston claims was the biggest wakeup call of his career. We will talk about Thurston is the same breath of Churchill, Fulton, Gasnier, Raper, Langlands, Lewis, Beetson and the next immortal Darren Lockyer.
Darren Lockyer – this is his finale, his last hurrah, the last Origin series before the curtain falls. Superlatives will not describe how good and how important Lockyer is and has been to Queensland rugby league. Queensland asked Langer to come back from the UK to resurrect some pride, short lived for QLD. The Maroons were struggling after Langer had faded into retirement, Queensland were getting comprehensively beaten by Johns and a ruthless NSW side. During all this time Lockyer was playing Origin – he played his first Origin match in 1998 – he has seen it all good and bad! Darren Lockyer is a true leader, a leader by example and still the best clutch player in the game! Darren Lockyer will sit back and let his side roll forward, he will watch Smith get his big men over the line, watch Slater bust himself to get to ever football on the full, probably get chuffed about the excitement of Neilson and Yow Yeh stepping into the furnace of SOO for the first time, and leverage off the freak that is Thurston. Lockyer will enjoy all these things, but the NSW side will be beaten by a team playing for their leader and mate first, their state second and themselves a distant third.
How good is Origin football!
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