May 26 Racing Selections

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on May 24, 2012

Two more placings last Saturday without a winner…. only blind stubbornness is preventing me from ending this column and starting a fire to remove any evidence that it ever existed – well that, and I’m not exactly sure how to set fire to the internet. All of which means we’ll have to revert to Plan B, which entails May 26 tips covering the meetings at  Caulfield, Rosehill and Doomben (featuring the Group 1 Doomben 10,000).

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for May 19 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Module, Stirling Grove

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Flemington – Freereturn ($6.00 SP) – unplaced

Doomben – Ginga Dude ($7.50) – third

May 19 results:   2 selections, no winners

2012 results:  32 selections, 32 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of 9.00 units (POT = -72%), BOB return of 9.50 units (POT = -70%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Caulfield – Liesele ($10.00 SP) – third

May 19 results:  1 selections, 0.5 units bet, no winners

2012 results:  11 selections, 5.5 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of 5.00 units (POT = -9%), BOB return of 5.00 units (POT = -9%)

Overall Results

May 19:  3 selections, 2.5 units bet, no winners

2012:  43 selections, 37.5 units bet, 2 winners, SP return of 14.00 units (POT = -63%), BOB return of 14.50 units (POT = -61%)

 

Saturday May 26

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 4 Placement  

  • Has really turned the corner of late, with three wins and two seconds from her last three starts.
  • Won easily at this track two starts ago.
  • Was unplaced in her only previous run over 2400 metres, but was placed at Group 1 level (in the VRC Oaks) as a three-year-old over 2500 metres.
  • Nicely in with 52 kilos (two kilos under the limit) after the claim.

Race 8 No. 5 Gold Sand  

  • An impressive last start winner at Caulfield, defeating the likes of Utah Saints, Pago Rock and Under The Eiffel.
  • Has won six of his past nine starts in the 1400-1600 metre range, including two wins at this trip.
  • Has eight wins and two placings from 18 career starts to date, which improves to six wins and a placing from just nine starts when third-up or further into a preparation.
  • Drawn well in barrier two to get an easy run behind the leaders.

 

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 8 No. 2 Erewhon

  • If you forgive the last three starts of an unsuccessful campaign in Melbourne late last spring (plus the Group 2 Villiers Stakes run off a five-week break), his career to date reads fantastically for a BM94 race.
  • A Group 1 winner as a three-year-old in the Spring Champion Stakes, he resumed last prep with a second to Somepin Anypin in open company at Rosehill, before running fourth to the same galloper when second-up. A repeat of those runs would win this race and win it well.
  • Whilst yet to win first-up, he has two seconds and a third from three attempts, so he can race well when fresh.

 

Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 4 No. 9 Hour Of Peril

  • Showed that he had come back in good order when winning at the Gold Coast when first-up (the first time he has resumed with a win) on Hollindale Stakes day.
  • Prior to that he ran third to Fillydelphia in a Quality and going back five starts ago, ran second to the same galloper in the Group 3 Rough Habit Quality at this track – excellent form for a Class Six race!
  • Has won two of his six races here to date, including one win from two at this distance.
  • Drawn nicely in barrier five and should be motoring home late.

Race 6 No. 1 Ironstein

  • His last start second in the Group 3 Chairman’s Quality behind Hume was excellent, given he was wide early and had to work hard mid race before battling away to the line.
  • Won the Group 3 Tattersall’s Cup at Eagle Farm over this distance last year.
  • His form over 2400-2500 metres is also excellent, including wins in the 2010 Listed Caloundra Cup, the Listed 2011 WJ McKell Cup and the Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
  • Having drawn the inside gate this time, he should have to do far less work to gain a favourable position up near the lead.

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet is offering a free $100 bet (literally a bet to nothing) if you sign up to their website either via one of the numerous banners or text links around this site. Just sign up and win (or not lose, as the case may be) on your free bet! Such patronage will also help this site to grow in stature over time.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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