Sting’s Racing Selections – 2011 report card
So the 2011 calendar year has come and gone, the first such year for Sting's Racing Selections. How did they go? At first blush, none too well. Scratch the surface a little though and there are some promising signs for 2012.
Results for December 17 meetings
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Orbit Express – scratched
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Warwick Farm – Jackpot Queen ($5.50 SP) – unplaced
December 17 Results: One selection, no winners
Overall Results: 110 selections, 19 winners, SP return of $70.25, SP POT = -37%, Luxbet BOB return of $81.80, BOB POT = -26%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Warwick Farm – Fibrillation ($7.50 SP) – unplaced
December 17 Results: One selection, no winners
Overall Results: 109 selections, 11 winners, SP return of $92.50, SP POT = -15%, Luxbet BOB return of $106.40, BOB POT = -2%
All tips
Overall Results: 219 selections, 30 winners, SP return of $162.75, SP POT = -26%, Luxbet BOB return of $188.20, BOB POT = -14%
Let's dig a little deeper into the 2011 results now.
As was discussed at length in the January 29 introductory tips column, my strike rate when tipping the shorter-priced horses (i.e. $5.50 or shorter) simply isn't good enought to justify taking those shorter quotes. We now have a year's worth of evidence to support the original hypothesis – either lay the short-priced tips, work around them or simply leave the race alone. Results for such horses will not be reported at all in this column for 2012 to reiterate the point that they should not be bet on.
The group of tips where the SP was $6 or greater are a little more intriguing. As per the midyear report card, let's break that group into two categories:
(1) SP of between $6 and $9.50 – 65 selections, nine winners, SP return of $68.50, SP POT = +5%, Luxbet BOB return of $78.00, BOB POT = +20%
(2) SP of between $10 or more – 44 selections, two winners, SP return of $24.00, SP POT = -45%, Luxbet BOB return of $28.40, BOB POT = -35%
The results for group 1 are very heartening and the plan for 2012 would certainly be to repeat them. The longshot nature of group 2 means that the results can be a bit sporadic from one year to the next, but nonetheless some changes are in order.
Firstly, the selection process for such longer priced horses needs to be a bit more judicious and a bit less about simply trying to jag one at a price.
The second change is a slightly more technical one – given the lower strike rate and higher average price for this group, there's a case for smaller staking here than applies to group 1. To wit, a 1 unit bet at $6 results in either a 1 unit loss or 5 unit profit, whereas a 0.5 unit bet on an $11 shot would garner either a 0.5 unit loss or a 5 unit profit.
In light of this, selections at double digit odds will only be bet for 0.5 units in 2012, such that 2 bets on double digit fancies only requires the same outlay as a single bet on say, a $7 shot. Given that in the long run the winning strke rate for group 2 should be roughly half that of group 1, I quite like the symmetry of this change.
On balance, the 2011 season was a slightly disappointing one, given that use of the Best Of Best price (my personal betting option of choice) was still unable to produce a profit. Nonetheless, the damage was minimal and some important lessons were learned for 2012. Bring on Saturday and the first Sting's Racing Selections column of the new year!
2012 Rules Summary
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections (as per 2011 rule).
(2) Selections where the SP is $5.50 will be deemed invalid (i.e. as they are not recommended bets, they will not have results recorded and accumulated over the course of the year).
(3) Where the SP is in the $6 to $9.50 range, results will be based on a 1 unit bet.
(4) Where the SP is in the $10 or more range, results will be based on a 0.5 unit bet.
(5) Results will continue to refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price, split into 2 groups based on rules 3 and 4 above.
