Super Bowl XLV: A Preview
There has been no Super Bowl steeped in such history in at least fifteen years. That year Super Bowl XXX saw America’s team, the Dallas Cowboys, take on the hard-nosed Pittsburgh Steelers, backed by Steeler Nation and revered as one of the top franchises in professional football. The Cowboys won on the back of two Larry Brown interceptions, handing the Steelers their only Super Bowl defeat.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are, almost without dispute, the most successful team in NFL history. Throughout the seventies under hall-of-fame coach Chuck Noll, the platform for greatness was laid. With Terry Bradshaw at quarterback and eight other hall-of-famers including defensive players Joe Green, Mel Blount, Jack Ham and Jack Lambert and offensive stars Lynn Swann, Franco Harris, John Stallworth and Mike Webster, Pittsburgh won four Super Bowls in seven seasons, making the playoffs in each year between 1973 and 1979 and establishing themselves as the first great team of the Super Bowl era. The dynasty ended in ’79 but the body still kicked until ’84.
After a decade of futility, Bill Cowher was hired and the franchise was reborn as a dominant force. From ’92 through ’97, the Cowher-led Steelers won five divisional titles in six season, playing in three conference championships and Super Bowl XXX. Cowher had to wait over a decade for his first Super Bowl title though but got the glory in Super Bowl XL when Pittsburgh, thanks to some favourable officiating, rolled over the Seattle Seahawks 21-10.
Cowher coached one more season before Mike Tomlin took the reins, only the third Pittsburgh coach in four decades. He duly won the championship in his second season, the Steelers coming back late against Arizona.
In the post-merger era, the Steelers have the best record in all of pro football: the most Super Bowl wins, the most overall wins, the most divisional titles, the best winning percentage, the most All-Pro selections, the second most playoff wins and most regular season wins.
The history of the Packers is perhaps even more storied.
A powerhouse since being founded by Curly Lambeau in the days after World War I, the Packers are the last of the small-town teams and are thus beloved across country by those who romanticise a different time and a different America. The community ownership model the team exists under only further enhances their likability.
Success has long been a part of the Packer tradition. Green Bay have won twelve league titles including three Super Bowl championships. The first two of those Super Bowl titles came in Super Bowl’s I and II under the revered Vince Lombardi, coaching legend and football giant. Lombardi led the Packers to three NFL titles before guiding the team to victory in the first two Super Bowl clashes, the sixties being, unquestionably, the decade of the Packers.
That era saw many Packer greats grace Lambeau Field. Quarterback Bart Starr. Linebacker Ray Nitschke. Safety Willie Wood. Tailback Paul Hornung. Centre Jim Ringo. Fullback Jim Taylor. Offensive tackle Forrest Gregg. Defensive tackle Henry Jordan. End Willie Davis. Cornerback Herb Adderley. All ten made it into the hall-of-fame with all 10 renowned for their hard-nosed style of football and the discipline instilled by Vince Lombardi.
It was a long while between drinks after Lombardi but when the next great Green Bay hero arrived, the Packers were reborn. Brett Favre was quickly taken to the breast of the Packer faithful and rewarded them with a Super Bowl title and 11 playoff appearances in 16 seasons at Lambeau. A team left in the wilderness for so long was once again a powerhouse with one of the great quarterbacks of this or any other era.
Rarely have two such historical and popular teams met in the Super Bowl. Rarely do two such historic giants of any sport meet in the decider.
Super Bowl XLV shapes as a battle for the ages.
Both teams certainly deserve to be at the big dance.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been one of the top teams all season and established their early superiority without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who spent the first four weeks sidelined after a suspension for some off-field forays into the realm of sexual assault. The Steelers won their first three without Ben before a close loss to Baltimore. With Roethlisberger under center, Pittsburgh won 9 of their remaining 12. The Steelers defence allowed 17 or more points only five times while holding opponents to single figures five times including three of the last four regular season games.
The Steelers defence ranked 1st in points allowed, 2nd in total defence and 1st in sacks (with the lauded linebacking corps recording a record 32.5 of the 48). Troy Polamalu ranked 2nd in the NFL with 7 picks while James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley both had 10-plus sacks. The offense was more than competent, ranking 12th overall. Ben Roethlisberger had the 5th best quarterback ranking and with a 17/5 TD/Interception ratio behind an offensive line that has suffered some major injuries. Rashard Mendenhall was a top-ten back with home run potential, ranking 5th with most runs of 20-plus yards. Wideout Mike Wallace ranks second in the NFL in yards per catch and is one of only 13 receivers NFL wide with 10 touchdowns.
Where the defence has dropped off in two playoff appearances against Baltimore and the New York Jets, at least in the first half against the Ravens and second half against the Jets, Ben Roethlisberger and the offense stepped up, putting enough points on the board to drive the Steelers toward the dream of their seventh Super Bowl title.
Green Bay’s efforts were not that dissimilar to Pittsburgh though they finished with a 10-6 record and a 6th seed. The Packers were ravaged by some key offensive injuries early in the season with running back Ryan Grant, tight end Jermichael Finley and tackle Mark Tauscher all having their season ended by mid-November. That did not stop the Packers team led by the irrepressible Aaron Rodgers though. After a 3-3 start that included an impressive opening week win over Philadelphia and horrible losses to Washington and Miami, the Rodgers put four on end with their 45-7 win over Dallas and 31-3 win at Minnesota their best fortnight over the regular season. An Aaron Rodgers concussion, though, had the Packers in danger of missing the playoffs. Wins over the Giants and Bears, however, saw Green Bay sneak into the playoffs where they let loose with dominant wins over Philadelphia, Atlanta and Chicago.
The Packers were a top-five passing team but it was their defence that pushed them into the playoffs, ranking 2nd in points allowed and 5th in total yards. The Packers also ranked 2nd in both picks and sacks. That big-play ability on defence was no doubt led by linebacker Clay Matthews, who ranked 4th in sacks with 13.5, and Charles Woodson, one of the great shutdown cornerbacks in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers had another wonderful year, throwing for 3,922 yards and 28 touchdowns. Receiver Greg Jennings had 12 touchdown catches.
These two teams are so evenly matches it is tough to separate them. Betting data does, however, shed a little more light.
Bettors are certainly struggling to find the winner with the line opening with Green Bay as 1 ½ point favourites and moving to a flat 3. It is only the second time in 20 years that a Super Bowl will go off with a line of a field goal or less.
The last time a Super Bowl went off at 3 or less, the Ravens smacked the Giants 34-7. It continued the run of big margins in games expected to be close with Super Bowl history averaging a margin of 15.5 points for games with a handicap of no more than a field goal.
Historically, favourites are the way to bet in the NFL. Favourites are 31-13 ATS in Super Bowl history with the favourites covering in 10 of the last 12 when the line was not double-figures. Higher seeds also have a terrible recent record against the line, going 1-11-2 in the last 14.
I still think Pittsburgh are the value though and they are my Super Bowl pick
Even with the match being played in a dome, which will suit Aaron Rodgers, and the recent injury to centre Maurkice Pouncey, with the Steelers now missing three offensive line starters, the Steelers look the goods.
The key for each team will be the running game and the subsequent time of possession both sides will have. The team who holds the ball the longest is 31-10-3 ATS in Super Bowl history while the team that rushes for the most yards is 35-9 straight up and 32-9- ATS.
Pittsburghhave an infinitely better running game than the Packers who, aside from one good performance from James Starks, have been ordinary on the ground in 2010. Against the best run defence in the NFL, the Packers are likely to make little impact on the ground. They will be forced to throw all day and that could create major headaches if the Steelers get the jump on passing plays. The Steelers, meanwhile, can go to Rashard Mendenhall, who is a big play back and one who, as proven against the Jets, can move the chains.
The Steelers have a major edge in the ground game and that will get them over the line.
The over-under seems more clear-cut. The total has been bet from 46 to 44 but will go up as the public love the over. This presents a good opportunity to play the under.
Green Bay are a 12-7 under team this season and have gone under in three of their last four. Pittsburgh are a 9-9 over-under team and are 4-4 over-under on the road. The Steelers did, however, go 4-2 under when meeting a playoff team in the regular season.
The over-under is 7-7 in the last 14 but the under has made the nut in 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls. The under has gone 6-3 in Super Bowls where the line was 3 or less and with these two having two of the top defensive units and two of the top defensive signal callers in the NFL, this one shapes as a low-scoring match.
The under is the play.
Those wanting to play the MVP market should avoid running backs. No tailback has won the MVP award since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII. Since then, seven quarterbacks, three wide receivers and two defensive players have been given the gong. Ben Roethlisberger at $3.75 is a touch of value while the “Any Other Player,” as long as it includes Pittsburgh’s linebacking corps, is probably the best play at $10 or better.
History is about to be made. The Steelers are about to enter seventh heaven. And it will be a state of being well deserved by a franchise who always sets the loftiest standards.
Pittsburgh 24, Green Bay 14
I think this game breaks well for either a Steelers/ under parlay (as you've implied) or a Packers/ over parlay.
Gambling rocks