The Forgive Files – February 23

This week’s edition of The Forgive Files takes us to the February 23 meetings at Caulfield and a sodden Warwick Farm.

Caulfield

Éclair Surprise: He was rising substantially in class from a Morphettville 68+ race to a Group 2 WFA event, as well as attempting 1800 metres second-up when his previous wins at that trip were either third or fourth-up in much easier races. He settled towards the rear of the field and was last at the 400-metre mark – give that they ran 3.8 seconds outside the track record and covered the final 600 metres in 34.21 (0.15 seconds slower than the Oakleigh Plate), he never really had a chance to run over the top of them.

Ortensia: The first three horses at the 400-metre mark of the Oakleigh Plate all finished in the top five, while the last three horses at that same mark all finished in the last four. Ortensia was part of the latter group. As a seven-year-old mare resuming after a lengthier-than-usual preparation last time around (when racing extensively in the UK), she may well take two or three runs to fully come to hand this autumn.

Vibrant Rouge: Four starts ago, she ran eighth (albeit beaten only two lengths) over 1400 metres in an RB78 race at Flemington, so her failure to run on strongly on Saturday over the same distance in a Group 3 SWP race should not necessarily come as a surprise. Her record at Group level is now two unplaced runs from as many starts, while her record beyond 1200 metres now stands at no wins and one second from three starts (compared to four wins and a second from six starts at 1200 or shorter). Back to a shorter trip and easier grade, she can bounce back.

Warwick Farm

Bid Spotter: His combined record on slow or heavy tracks now stands at a solitary win from 12 starts, compared to eight wins and six placings from 37 starts on good or dead tracks (a record which improves considerably once his first-up and second-up runs are removed). He is race fit and at the right distance range – he simply needs a reasonably dry track to return to the winner’s circle.

Nocturnelle: She got a long way back in the field and by the time she was fully wound up on the heavy surface, the leaders had dashed away and she had no chance of winning. She hit the line fairly well, especially when you consider that her winning record improves when further into a preparation (two wins from seven races when first or second-up, four wins from six races thereafter). She could be in for a strong preparation, especially in races around the 1400 to 1600-metre mark.

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo