July 21 Racing Selections

Finally, some winners! With the first steps of the road to recovery from a six-month fiasco now behind us, tips for July 21 cover the race meetings at Flemington, Rosehill and Eagle Farm.

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for July 14 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Show Up

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Caulfield – Prince Of Capers ($8.00 SP, $8.20 BOB) – Won

Warwick Farm – Zakynthos Imprintz ($7.50 SP, $8.10 BOB) – Won

Morphettville Parks – Road Warrior ($6.00) – second

July 14 results:   3 selections, 2 winners, 1 second, SP return of 15.50 units, BOB return of 16.30 units

2012 results:  48 selections, 48 units bet, 4 winners, 18 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 31.00 units (POT = -35%), BOB return of 32.80 units (POT = -32%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Caulfield – Platelet ($12.00 SP, $13.90 BOB) – Won

July 14 results:  1 selection, 0.5 units bet, 1 winners, SP return of 6.00 units, BOB return of 6.95 units

2012 results:  13 selections, 6.5 units bet, 2 winners, 1 third, SP return of 11.00 units (POT = +69%), BOB return of 11.95 units (POT = +84%)

Overall Results

July 14:  4 selections, 3.5 units bet, 3 winners, 1 second, SP return of 21.50 units, BOB return of 23.25 units

2012:  61 selections, 54.5 units bet, 6 winners, 19 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 42.00 units (POT = -23%), BOB return of 44.75 units (POT = -18%)

 

Saturday July 21

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 6 No. 9 Forty Thirty

• Forgive his last start effort, where he carved out sectionals that were simply too fast for an 1800-metre race; in the end, he did well to hang on to third spot behind Banca Mo.
• Won his two starts prior to that, including a win over this trip at Caulfield.
• Has a solid record of five wins and eight placings from 19 starts when third-up or further into a preparation.
• Is likely to get an easy lead and with only 51 kilos on his back after the claim, will take some catching.

Race 7 No. 7 Night War

• Always have to respect Mick Price when he gets a promising young horse brought across to his stable (in this case, a fast filly from Western Australia).
• She has five wins and three placings from nine career starts, including a win at Group 3 level last time in.
• A winner of both her previous runs over 1000 metres.
• Has two wins and a second from three previous first-up runs.

 

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 7 No. 3 Lethal Arrow

• A last start winner at this track and trip (when it was also rain-affected), beating a subsequent winner in Our Barney and also promising stayer Peck.
• Has two wins and a placing from five starts on slow tracks, as well as six wins and seven placings from 19 starts on tracks rated dead or worse.
• Has five wins and five placings from 13 starts when third-up or further into a preparation.
• Should roll forward in a race where the tempo is likely to be only moderate.
• With the same weight as he carried to victory last time, why couldn’t he repeat the dose?

 

Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of slow 6 to heavy 10)

Race 8 No. 4 Carry Me Bluey

• Working out the top three in the betting order for this race is pretty easy, but ma going with the one who has the credentials at a mile.
• Has three wins and a second from six starts at the trip, compared to Belltone (one go in 2010 for a fourth placing) and Adnocon (11 starts, one win, three placings).
• His heavy track form is better than it appears on paper – three runs for a second and a fourth in a pair of Listed Prime Minister’s Cup runs, plus a fourth in the Listed Spear Chief Quality.
• Carries only 55.5 kilos in this race, while Belltone has 59 and Adnocon has 58.5 – on a wet track, those extra kilos could prove the difference.

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo