September 17 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the September 17 meetings at Caulfield (featuring the Group 1 Underwood Stakes), Rosehill (featuring the Group 1 George Main Stakes, with the meeting transferred across from Randwick) and Doomben.
Results for September 10
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Moonee Valley – Rue Maple ($4.40 SP) – second
Moonee Valley – Lucky Eighty Eight ($4.80) – unplaced
Moonee Valley – Spirited Eagle ($4.60) – unplaced
Rosehill – Ofcourseican ($5.50) – third
Doomben – They Won’t Last ($4.20) – third
September 10 Results: Five selections, no winners
Overall Results: 78 selections, 15 winners, SP return of $54.55, SP POT = -30%, Luxbet BOB return of $64.20, BOB POT = -18%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Moonee Valley – Buffering ($8.50 SP, $9.70 BOB) – Won
September 10 Results: One selections, one winner, SP return of $8.50, BOB return of $9.70
Overall Results: 74 selections, nine winners, SP return of $72.50, SP POT = -2%, Luxbet BOB return of $84.50, BOB POT = +14%
All tips
Overall Results: 152 selections, 24 winners, SP return of $127.05, SP POT = -16%, Luxbet BOB return of $148.70, BOB POT = -2%
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Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday September 17
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 2 No. 8 Panipique
The likely solid tempo in this race should suit the Peter Moody-trained mare who drops back from ‘black type’ level races for the first time in quite a while. A winner at Listed level last preparation and twice a winner at this distance, her two runs this time in have been better than they looked on paper and with only 53 kilos (the minimum for this race), she looks nicely in at the weights.
Race 4 No. 11 Gail
She definitely seems like the forgotten horse in this race. Four wins and five placings from 12 starts, with her only three misses being a pair of first-up runs at unsuitably short distances and a complete ‘forgive’ effort in the Group 2 Sunline Stakes back in March. She has two wins and a third from three goes at the 1400 metres and last preparation finished less than half a length behind Pinker Pinker in the Group 3 Matron Satkes. Sitting on the 53 kilo minimum and nicely drawn in barrier six, I think that the jump in distance from 1100 to 1400 metres is the key to her winning prospects.
Race 8 No. 3 At First Sight
It’s rare that you get the chance to take on an odds-on pop (December Draw) who has no Group level form with a horse who DOES have some Group level form, but here we are. After finishing tenth over a far too short 1200-metre scamper first up, this imported galloper with a second in the Group 1 Epsom Derby on his CV ran an eye-catching sixth in the WFA Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes. By way of reference, the horses who finished second through to fifth in that race (Glass Harmonium, Midas Touch, Playing God and Lights Of Heaven) are all well in the market for the Underwood Stakes. The step up to 2000 metres appears ideal, as does the drop in class to a Group 3 handicap. At the generous odds on offer, he represents excellent value.
Race 9 No. 15 Anabaa’s Legacy
This speedy mare has race fitness on her side and a record that is better than it first appears. Her only three unplaced career runs to date came on slow tracks (twice) and days where she pulled up lame after the race (once, in the final run of her first preparation). I thought her second-up run in the Group 3 Cockram Stakes was fantastic and the first five across the line that day included Mid Summer Music, Parables and Pinker Pinker, so the form line has already proven to be extremely strong. From barrier five
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 2 Albert The Fat
With the likes of Zaratone, Winter King, Leapfrog and Love Conquers All hightailing it out in front early on, I think this race is set for the swoopers in Danleigh, Decision Time and Albert The Fat. I’m using the ‘forgotten horse’ theory again in going with the latter of those three. A recent transfer to the Chris Waller stable (never a bad thing), he has won ten of 27 starts overall, but nine of 17 starts when first or second-up and eight of 16 starts over 1200 metres. His last preparation saw a fourth to Buffering in the WFA Group 2 Victory Stakes to Buffering in a race with little speed, followed by a sixth to Black Caviar in the WFA Group 1 BTC Cup. With two barrier trials leading into this race I think he’ll be primed for a big run here.
Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 8 No. 1 Poor Judge
His record of 13 wins from 31 starts improves substantially when you look only at runs on good tracks (ten wins and four placings from 19 starts). Moroever, he has two wins and a second from three runs at Doomben, three wins from five previous second-up efforts and is a winner over the 1100-metre journey. With only 57 kilos after the claim and barrier four, I think his class will prevail here.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
